文化企业是经济发展到一定阶段、具有政治风险等特点的新兴产物。文化企业的价值评估是解决文化企业投资和融资等难题的重要举措。现行的实物期权方法一般未涉及政治风险，由于政治风险的双重效应改变了期权理论中定价核的线性性质，易导致对文化企业价值的过高或过低估计。欲揭示文化企业价值形成的内在机理，本研究综合考虑文化企业产品的需求不确定性、成本的不确定性和政治风险等因素，这就增加了文化企业价值评估问题的难度和复杂性，前人很少涉及。研究将GARCH理论和实物期权理论相结合应用于文化企业价值评估中，以获得比现行的评估方法更科学、合理的结果。研究内容有GARCH实物期权评估方法的理论依据和参数的估计、期权之间的相互影响，理论评估模型的构建及数值计算，通过实证检验，建立适合于文化企业价值评估的一般方法及最优的投资决策规则。对这一前沿理论研究不仅能为文化企业投资和融资决策提供依据，也有利于文化市场的完善和发展。

Cultural firm is envisaged as an expectant firm with political risk et al characteristics when economic development come up to advanced stage. Cultural firm pricing is an important measure to solve difficult problems in cultural industry such as investment and financing decision. Political risk and its positive-negative effect under uncertainty are always not taken into consideration in present real option method, which will cause the undervaluation or overvaluation of the cultural firm because it change the linear property of pricing kernel in option theory. In order to reveal the inherent mechanism of price formation of the cultural firm, consumer dement uncertainty, investment cost uncertainty and political risk are considered into this research, which will add difficulty in this problem and there is little research in this area. We apply both GARCH theory and real option theory to the valuation of the cultural firm, which will generate a more scientific and reasonable result. The content of this research contains theoretical basis of GARCH real option pricing method, estimate parameters, the interaction between different options, building of the model and its numerical simulation, empirical research, the valuation method of the cultural firm and its optimal investment decision. This research not only can provide a theoretical basis for the invest-financing decision making in cultural industry but also the standardization development of cultural market.