基于颠覆性技术创新的新兴产业成长机制与跃迁路径研究

颠覆性技术作为提升科技创新能力的重要途径，如何在新时期抢占相关技术和产业发展的至高点，已成为大国博弈和国际竞争的重要议题。本研究拟基于颠覆性创新和新兴产业成长理论，采用专利计量、社会网络分析、政策文本分析、探索性案例研究、专家访谈、问卷调查等方法，开展基于颠覆性技术创新的新兴产业成长机制与跃迁路径研究。首先，从内涵、特征、产业生命周期、影响因素等维度对基于颠覆性技术创新的新兴产业成长理论基础进行解析。其次，构建基于“技术-市场-政策”框架的此类新兴产业成长分析模型，分析技术、市场、政策在产业成长过程中的交互作用和动态变化，以探究此类新兴产业的成长机制与跃迁路径。然后，应用模型对我国3D打印产业和LED产业成长机制与跃迁路径开展实证分析。最后，从总体策略、技术创新、市场环境、政策工具等维度提出推动我国此类新兴产业优化发展的政策建议。相关研究结论可为产业主管部门制定产业发展规划和政策提供支持。

Disruptive technology is an important way to enhance science and technology innovation ability. How to seize the highest point of the development of related technologies and industries in the new period has become an important topic of the game among the major powers and international competition. Based on the theories of disruptive innovation and emerging industry growth, we utilize the methods of patent bibliometric, social network analysis, policy context analysis, exploratory case study, expert interview, questionnaires and so forth, to conduct a study on the growth mechanism and transition pathway of the emerging industry based on the disruptive technology innovation. First, the theoretical basis of the emerging industry growth based on the disruptive technology innovation is analyzed from the dimensions of connotation, characteristics, industry life cycle and the influencing factors. Second, we construct an analysis model of emerging industry growth based on the framework of ‘technology-market-policy’, to unveil the growth mechanism and interactive relationship between technology, market, policy and emerging industry growth, and to explore the transition pathway of industry growth. Then, we use the model to develop an empirical analysis of the growth mechanism and transition pathway of China's 3D printing industry and light emitting diode industry. Finally, we put forward the policy suggestion for the development of China's emerging industry based on the disruptive technology innovation from the dimensions of overall strategy, technology innovation, market environment and policy tool. The findings will help the authorities make new plans and policies for the relevant industries.