颠覆性技术推动产业跃迁的作用机制、传导路径与政策选择研究

随着新一轮科技革命与产业变革与我国转变发展方式形成历史性交汇，颠覆性技术的“机会窗口”和产业跃迁的“需求条件”均发生了新变化。颠覆性技术稍纵即逝的爆发周期及我国产业跃迁面临的瓶颈，对加快以颠覆性技术推动产业跃迁提出了急迫需求。基于此，本研究结合技术创新管理与产业经济相关理论，综合采用专利计量、政策文本分析、案例研究、专家访谈、结构方程模型、系统动力学等定性及定量方法，以“理论基础解析-分析模型构建-产业实证研究-政策建议提出”的思路，开展颠覆性技术推动产业跃迁的作用机制、传导路径与政策选择研究，主要包括四方面：颠覆性技术推动产业跃迁的理论基础、“技术-市场-政策”视角下的颠覆性技术推动产业跃迁分析模型、人工智能技术推动我国医疗产业跃迁的实证研究、加快颠覆性技术推动我国产业跃迁的对策建议。通过上述研究，以期为新一轮国家中长期科技发展规划和未来产业创新政策的制定提供理论支持和决策参考。

As a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation forms a historical intersection with China's transformation of development mode, new changes have taken place in the "window of opportunity" of disruptive technology and the "demand conditions" of industrial transition. The fleeting outburst cycle of disruptive technology and the bottlenecks faced by China's industry transition have put forward urgent needs to accelerate the industry transition driven by the disruptive technology. Based on the aforesaid background, this study will combine related theories of technology innovation management and industrial economics, and comprehensively utilize qualitative and quantitative methods, such as patent bibliometrics, policy text analysis, case study, expert interview, structural equation model, system dynamics, etc. Based on the logic of "theoretical basis analysis - analysis model construction - industry empirical research - policy recommendations", the study will conduct the research on the mechanism, transmission path and policy choice of the industry transition driven by the disruptive technology. It will include four aspects: the theoretical basis of the industry transition driven by the disruptive technology, the analysis model of the industry transition driven by the disruptive technology from the perspective of "technology - market - policy", empirical research on China's medical industry transition driven by artificial intelligence technology, suggestions for accelerating China's industrial transition driven by the disruptive technology. Through the above research, with a view to providing theoretical support and decision-making reference for the formulation of the new round of national medium and long-term scientific and technological development planning and the future industry innovation policies.