在中国，城市道路的交通拥堵已经成为严重的社会问题。北京、上海、广州和天津等城市相继出台不同的汽车管制政策，以缓解交通持续拥堵的压力，但其实施效果尚有争议。本课题以理论建模和实验分析的方法，分析和比较各种拥堵治理机制。本课题的研究对象涉及上海、广州和新加坡的车牌拍卖机制，北京的等概率摇号、阶梯概率摇号，广州摇号——拍卖混合机制，以及未来可行的拥堵收费机制等。..在理论层面上，本课题将为现行的车牌管制机制建立数理模型，讨论个体行为因素对机制治理效果的影响，从而对各类机制的社会总福利和效率进行横向比较。此外，本研究也为这些机制未来的组合使用提供了理论支撑。在实验层面上，本课题把各地现行机制和拥堵收费等机制放到经济学实验室里进行模拟，为研究机制之间的效率、个体决策行为提供了可靠的数据支撑。..本课题的研究希望能为国内大城市的车牌管制提供合国情、顺民意、有效率的参考方案。

In China, the city's road traffic jam has become a serious social problem. Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Tianjin were introduced public policies of controlling the private car to ease the pressure of traffic jam, but there are many disputes about whether these policies are effective. Using theoretical modeling and experimental tools, this project is to analyze and compare several different mechanisms of congestion controlling. Our project compares policies such as lisence auctions in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Singapore, lisence lottery mechanisms in Beijing, lottery - auction mechanism in Guangzhou and congestion pricing. ..In the theoretical analysis, this project firstly builds models for the policies of congestion controlling. Then, we discuss the effects of individual behavior on these policies. Our project also includes a comparison on social welfares and efficiencies among the policies. It can help us to develop a policy with a combination of different policies. In the experimental analysis, this project simulates the implemented policies and the congestion pricing in a economic laboratory. The experiments can help us to test the hypotheses from our theoretical models. ..The project hopes to provide a well mechanism for controlling the vehicle ownership and usage charges in China..