前瞻指引被誉为中央银行沟通“革命”。本项目认为，前瞻指引产生效应的过程是信号传递与反馈、动态博弈的过程，其效应的内在机理和微观基础亟待探索。本项目拟利用信号理论、博弈论、行为经济学理论和分析方法阐明正向信号视角下前瞻指引通过影响企业家信心进而影响企业投资的作用机理以及反向信号视角下前瞻指引反应于企业家信心、企业投资变化的作用机理；在计算企业投资水平、量化我国中央银行前瞻指引、分解企业家信心的基础上，检验前瞻指引通过影响企业家信心进而对企业投资产生的影响及该影响在不同前瞻指引分类维度、不同企业家信心分类维度、企业家信心分解维度的差异性，探索货币政策传导新渠道（前瞻指引→企业家信心→企业投资）；然后检验前瞻指引反应于企业家信心、企业投资变化时稳定经济的表现及该表现与价格水平目标制、名义收入定标规则的关系。本项目研究有助于为增强前瞻指引引导企业家信心、调控企业投资的有效性提供科学依据和政策建议。

The forward guidance has been hailed as a "revolution" in central bank communication. This project believes that the process in which forward guidance plays a role is the process of the transmission and feedback of signal and dynamic game, and the internal mechanism and micro foundation of the effects of forward guidance need to be explored urgently. First, this project intends to use signal theory, game theory, behavioral economics theory and analytical methods to clarify the action mechanism of forward guidance affecting corporate investment through affecting entrepreneurs' confidence from the perspective of positive signal and the action mechanism of the response of forward guidance to the changes in entrepreneurs' confidence and corporate investment from the perspective of reverse signal. Second, based on calculating corporate investment level, quantifying forward guidance of Chinese central bank and decomposing entrepreneurs' confidence, this project empirically tests the effects of forward guidance on corporate investment through affecting entrepreneurs' confidence and their difference between different classification dimensions of forward guidance, between different classification dimensions of entrepreneurs' confidence and between decomposition dimension of the entrepreneurs' confidence, which actually explores new channels of monetary policy transmission (forward guidance→entrepreneurs' confidence→corporate investment).Third, this project empirically tests the performance of forward guidance in stabilizing economy when forward guidance responds to the changes in the entrepreneurs' confidence and the corporate investment, as well as the relationship between the performance and the price-level targeting system, the nominal income targeting rules. The research of this project is helpful to provide scientific evidence and policy suggestions for enhancing the effectiveness of forward guidance in guiding entrepreneurs' confidence and regulating corporate investment.