基于逸度模型和物种敏感性分布的PPCPs概率生态风险评价模式研究

我国药物和个人护理品(PPCPs)的大量生产和使用造成了环境污染和潜在生态风险，目前我国PPCPs风险研究非常薄弱，迫切需要发展可行的PPCPs 生态风险评价模式，评价我国PPCPs 区域生态风险。本研究在调研国内外PPCPs研究现状和风险评价方法的基础上，根据PPCPs环境归趋过程，构建PPCPs的多介质环境逸度模型；针对部分PPCPs物种毒性数据缺乏，建立综合模型估算方法，实现PPCPs物种敏感性分布的建立和优化；旨在建立一套基于环境逸度模型和物种敏感性分布的PPCPs概率生态风险评价综合模式。以北京为研究区域，对典型水体进行分季节采样和PPCPs分析，研究PPCPs暴露时空分布规律，建立观测暴露浓度分布，进行模型校正，应用建立的风险评价模式进行PPCPs生态风险评价，筛选高风险PPCPs，为其风险管理提供决策支持。本研究将为我国PPCPs生态风险评价体系的建立提供理论和技术支持。

The massive production and usage of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) has caused environmental contamination and potential ecological risk in China. However, the research on the ecological risk of PPCPs is very weak in China. It is very urgent to develop feasible ecological risk assessment model of PPCPs, and use it to assess the regional ecological risk of PPCPs in China. After investigating the status of PPCPs research and the current ecological risk assessment methods, this study will firstly develop the multimedia environmental fugacity model of PPCPs according to the environmental behavior and fate of PPCPs. Then this study will develop and ameliorate the species sensitivity distributions of PPCPs, following the application of various models to fill the data gap of the species toxicities of PPCPs. The integrated probabilistic ecological risk assessment model of PPCPs will be established, based on the environmental fugacity model and species sensitivity distribution. A case study of the integrated ecological risk assessment model will be conducted in Beijing. The spatial and temporal characteristics of PPCPs exposure will be analyzed based on the seasonal environmental sampling and analysis of PPCPs in typical water bodies in Beijing. The observed environmental exposure distribution of PPCPs will be developed to validate and calibrate the integrated ecological risk assessment model. Finally, this study will employ the established ecological risk assessment model to assess the ecological risk of PPCPs and screen the high-risk PPCPs in Beijing, and hence help the risk management of PPCPs in Beijing. This study can provide the scientific basis and technical support for the establishment of ecological risk assessment system of PPCPs in China.