本项目针对智能船舶关键技术之一的自主航行问题，应用基于在线SVM的系统辨识方法，开发海上航行船舶动力学模型在线动态建模及实时运动预报智能系统。根据海上航行船舶的动力学特点，选择合适的数学模型形式，基于仿真数据和自航模试验数据进行系统研究与分析，选定动态建模所需的易于获取信息并有重要影响的输入变量；在海洋工程水池进行波浪中的自航模试验，通过与其他高校交流与合作获取海上实船试验数据，并应用鲁棒性强和计算效率高的滤波技术对测量数据进行实时预处理；根据实时更新的测量数据，对船舶在桨、舵控制力和风、浪、流环境干扰力联合作用下的运动进行在线动态建模和实时预报，构建可自适应调节的在线SVM模型；采用不同试验工况下的自航模试验和实船试验数据对所建立的在线SVM模型进行验证，并基于验证结果改进模型，提高所开发的在线SVM模型的有效性和可靠性。通过本项目的研究，可为实现智能船舶的海上自主航行功能提供技术支持。

Aiming at the autonomous navigation, one of the key techniques for intelligent ships, this project applies the online SVM-based system identification method to develop an intelligent system for the online dynamic modeling and the real-time motion prediction for ships sailing at sea. According to the dynamic characteristics of the ships, the appropriate form of mathematical model is selected. Based on the data of simulation experiments and free-running model tests, systematic study and analysis are carried out to determine the influential input variables with information easy to acquire, that are required for dynamic modeling. The free-running model tests in waves are carried out in the Ocean Engineering Basin, while the full-scale sea trial data are obtained through the exchanges and cooperation with other university. The test data are pre-processed in real time by using the robust and computationally efficient filtering techniques. Using the test data updated in real time, investigations on the online dynamic modeling and real-time motion prediction are conducted for ships sailing under the combined effects of the control forces from propeller(s) and rudder(s) and the environmental interference forces from wind, waves and current, and an adaptive online SVM model is developed. The established online SVM model is validated by data of free-running model tests and full-scale sea trials under different test conditions, and then improved based on the validation results, thereby its validity and reliability are enhanced. Through the research of this project, it is expected to provide technical support for the realization of autonomous navigation function of intelligent ships at sea.