基于复杂系统观的北方草原区多元协作性治理绩效评价及其改进对策研究

基于自混沌学之父庞加莱等后逐步发展成型的复杂系统观，在同时考虑空间与时间尺度、不同草地类型及质量的四维度下，在应用博弈实验分析构建草原区多元协作治理基本模型的基础上，通过采用将调查、访谈、观测观察及文献整合分析等定性和定量研究相结合的大数据综合集成法，对北方15典型县60余年（1949-2012）草地治理进行系统实地考察，并通过基于多种大数据的文献荟萃分析对其它北方20县进行深度案例比较研究，系统评价草原区多元协作治理，评估其显著度和绩效，分析影响治理关键因素和路径，归纳成功治理基本制度设计原则和作用机理，构建草原区"多元协作治理"系统理论和新模型，并探讨我国草地治理改进对策。同时，通过和世界其它草原区治理（例北美普列利草原和澳大利亚大草原等）比较研究，检验从发展中和儒家社会提出的理论和模型在空间尺度推演及不同发展和文化背景下的可扩展性，并完善和发展当代多元协作治理的一般模型及相关理论。

From a complex systems perspective devleoped from Henri Poincaré (the father of modern chaos theory) and others, in taking into account the four dimensions of the spatial scale, time scale, different types of grass, and grass quality, and on the basis of building a game-theoretical model for grassland multi-collaborative governance using both lab and field experimental data, this project tries to systematically study grassland multi-collaborative governance over past six decades (1949-2012) in northern China, evaluate its significance and efficiency, analyze its key influencing factors and paths, conclude its successful design principles and influencing systems, develop its systematical theories and models, and propose operative grassland governance improvements. The project is planning to study 15 classical counties based on a comprehensive and integrated method which combines together a range of qualitative and quantitative research methods such as surveys, interviews, observations, and meta-analysis of existing literature, and 20 other counties relied on a meta-analysis of a variety of archive data. Many relevant cases in other parts of China and across the globe such as the Pulie Li grassland in Northern America and Australia Prairie will also be included to test the generalability of the findings in a developing and confucious society such as China as well as test and extend the general model of multi-collaborative governance and its related theories.