体质是一个国家综合国力的体现，老年人更是把健康作为生活的第一需要，因此老年体质评价的研究越显迫切。如何准确评估体质，目前国内外提出了众多的测量方法，但这些方法多侧重于形态、机能和运动能力等生理指标，未能全面体现生理、心理、社会等多领域与体质的关系，且少有针对老年人群的体质测量标准。为此，申请者在以往数学模型预测和评估疾病的基础上，创新性地提出利用模糊神经网络（FNN）模型来评价和预测体质。本研究拟通过文献系统评价和社区大样本人群的随访研究，筛选出老年体质可信度高、公认度好的相关因子（形态、机能、运动能力和身体素质、心理和社会适应能力等）为输入变量，建立适用社区老年人群检测的FNN模型。 本研究不仅弥补了目前人体体质测量方法的不足，而且对推动老年医学的研究具有重要价值，尤其对科学、全面评估老年人体质的内在实质、预测和预防慢病，为该人群体质判断标准的建立提供重要依据。

The constitution was a reflection of a country’s comprehensive national power, and the elderly viewed health as the first need of lives; so studies on the evaluation of elderly constitution were showed more urgently. How to accurately assess the constitution? The researchers at home and abroad have put forward many measuring methods at present. However, these methods were more focused on physiological indexes such as body shape, function and athletic ability and so on, failed to comprehensively embody the relationship between many domains including physiology, psychology, society, et al. and the constitution and less the measuring standard of constitution for the elderly. Therefore, the idea that the constitution will be evaluated and forecasted by the fuzzy neural network model was proposed innovatively on the basis of using mathematical models to predict and evaluate disease at past. In this study, reliable and recognized for good factors of the constitution among the elderly will be screened through systematic reviews and follow-up studies of large populations in city communities, then looked as input variables; ultimately, the fuzzy neural network model which will be applied to detect in the community elderly population is established. This research not only makes up for the deficiency of the current measuring methods of human body constitution, but also possesses an important value for promoting researches in Geriatrics. Especially, it will provide an important foundation in assessing the inherent essence of the elderly's constitution scientifically and comprehensively, predicting and preventing chronic diseases and establishing the criterion of constitution for the elderly.