受各类动态、强耦合、不确定通航要素影响，复杂水域极易存在潜在通航安全隐患，不利于船舶航行。作为专家系统的统一化的纯概率理论，随机集可破解统计现象知识匮乏与建构模型固有模糊性等瓶颈。因此，本项目以随机集为理论基础，结合大连老铁山水道实际通航状况，设计复杂水域通航风险动态评估模型。研究内容包括：①针对复杂场景下船舶定位精度不高的问题，研究船舶动态跟踪与航迹预测子模型及其普适性滤波算法；②针对高维结构矩阵计算收敛速度慢的问题，提出基于影响因素质量函数的评价指标证据体；③针对联合使用多种专家系统融合技术的累积误差大的问题，优化基于复杂水域通航风险动态评估模型；④实证分析并验证所提出模型的稳定性、收敛性和可靠性。本项目研究制定一套科学、准确的动态评估标准，形成一套有效、可行的动态评估理论，研发一套具有自主知识产权的动态评估软件，可为我国水上交管部门的通航决策提供科学理论与有效手段。

Owing to the coupled, uncertain and dynamic navigation factors, there are mostly potential navigation risks in the complex waters, which affect maritime navigation. As a unifying foundation for the expert systems theory, the random set can solve the bottleneck of both ignorance of statistical phenomenology and ambiguities inherent of constructing model. Therefore, on the basis of the random set theory, this project will focus on the design of dynamic evaluation model of complex waters navigation under the condition of Laotieshan Waterway. The main research contents of this project are as follows: ①Aiming at vessel location with low precision in complex scene, the project will study a vessel dynamic tracking and trajectory prediction model and it’s universal filtering algorithm; ②In view of slow convergence speed of high dimensional structure matrix, the project will introduce an integrated evidence of evaluation indicator based on the probability mass function of navigation factor; ③To deal with the problem of large accumulated error in combination of various expert system fusion techniques, the project will optimize the dynamic evaluation model of complex waters navigation risk using the random set; ④Empirical analysis on actual navigation, the stability, convergence and reliability of the proposed model will be further proved. It is shown that the project should provide dynamic evaluation standard with science and accuracy, should establish dynamic evaluation theory with efficiency and reliability, and should develop dynamic evaluation software with independent intellectual property. This project also can provide scientific theory and effective means for the maritime surveillance and administration to make decision on navigation.