我国道路交通面临严峻的减排挑战，道路交通减排措施及其评价受到国内外学者的高度重视。现有研究集中于从减排潜力维度对车辆和燃料技术进步进行评价，而对成本维度和非技术类减排措施的认识有限，尚无法完全满足政策制定需求。本项目拟提出我国道路交通减排措施的成本有效性分析方法，揭示行为方式转变、车辆技术进步、替代燃料应用三大类二十余项减排措施在成本维度与减排潜力维度的互动关系及演进规律；开发基于分层Logit结构的消费者车辆选择模型，厘清车辆成本效用与非成本效用对消费者购车选择行为和宏观车辆市场份额的作用机理，建立各类车辆动力系统市场扩散的演进情景；建立基于ASIF解耦方法的车队集成模型，阐明宏观尺度下道路交通系统对于多减排措施耦合的系统响应规律，计算其总体减排成本和减排潜力。本项目研究成果将为我国政府制定交通减排政策提供多方面支持，包括减排措施优先级识别、减排成本评估、碳税效果预测等。

China’s road transport sector is facing severe challenge in terms of GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions mitigation. The importance of mitigation measure evaluation for road transport sector has been highlighted by both Chinese and foreign researchers. Existing studies mostly focus on the mitigation potential of vehicle and fuel technology improvements. However, these studies did not provide enough knowledge on mitigation cost and the evaluation of non-technology mitigation measures, thus limiting the policy implications from these studies. In this study, we intended to propose the cost effectiveness evaluation framework for China’s road transport sector, investigate the mitigation cost and potential for more than 20 mitigation measures categorized in 3 major groups. To develop a nested multinomial Logit framework based consumer vehicle choice model, describe the effect of cost utility term and non-cost utility term on consumer vehicle choice behavior and vehicle market penetration, establish the evolution scenario of vehicle powertrain market penetration in China’s vehicle market. To develop an ASIF decoupling approach based vehicle fleet model, clarify how the road transport sector’s GHG emissions might respond to mitigation measures, and calculate the overall mitigation cost and potential. This study is designed to provide several foundations for mitigation policy making in China’s road transport sector, including identifying the priority of mitigation measures, estimating mitigation cost, evaluating the effect of carbon tax, etc.