热带海岛城市居民慢行出行对土地利用的响应及碳减排机理——以海口市为例

城市居民交通出行的碳减排对低碳城市建设具有重要影响。针对热带海岛城市居民慢行出行对土地利用的响应及碳减排机理研究薄弱问题，本研究以海南省会海口市城市社区为基本单元，首先，结合资源三号卫星遥感影像、无人机航拍数据和社区访谈，以居民慢行出行的建成环境评估为依据选择典型社区；然后，进行典型社区居民的问卷调研，对建成环境变化明显和不明显的社区，分别应用结构方程模型（SEM）分析土地利用空间结构、土地混合利用等建成环境变量及其变化对居民慢行出行及碳排放的影响；进而，针对城市形态锁定下的不同类型社区，运用多项Logit模型（MNL）分析公共设施和慢行出行设施布局对居民慢行出行及碳排放的影响；最后，应用情景分析法模拟以公共设施优化为代表的土地利用空间布局优化，和以自行车停车场和租赁点优化为代表的慢行出行设施优化对居民慢行出行的碳减排潜力，从而为以人文本的低碳城市与交通系统建设提供理论指导与实践经验。

Travel carbon emissions reduction from urban residents has a significant impact on the construction of low-carbon city. However, the study on the response of non-motorized transportation to land use and the mechanism of carbon emission reduction for city residents in tropical island are weak. Based on the urban community of Haikou City in Hainan Province as the basic unit, first of all, according to remote sensing images of the third Resource Satellite, UAV aerial data, and community interviews, this study selects the typical communities according to the built environment assessment of residents' non-motorized transportation. Then, conduct a questionnaire survey of typical community residents, the effects of built environmental variables such as land use spatial structure and mixed land use, and their change, on non-motorized travel and carbon emission were analyzed by structural equation model (SEM) for communities that the built environment changes significantly or not obvious, respectively. After that, in view of the different types of communities under the locked urban form, using multinominal Logit model (MNL) to analyze the impact of public facilities and non-motorized travel facilities on residents' non-motorized transportation and carbon emissions. At last, using the scenario analysis to simulate the carbon emission reduction potential for residents' non-motorized transportation by the optimization of land use spatial structure, which is represented by public facilities optimization, and the optimization of non-motorized travel facilities, which is represented by bicycle parking lot and lease point optimization. This study can provide theoretical guidance and practical experience for humanistic low carbon city and transportation system construction.