国家重点生态功能区政策对桂黔喀斯特山区生态系统服务的影响识别与优化模拟

科学回答生态系统服务与生态政策的关系，定量揭示生态政策对生态系统服务价值变化的影响，并准确识别政策实施过程中生态系统服务功能间权衡/协同关系的演变规律，遴选适应于未来生态系统服务平衡的最佳优化方案是当前研究的热点和难点问题之一。基于国家重点生态功能区政策大背景，本研究以桂黔喀斯特山区为例，通过修正的市场替代法估算县域生态系统服务价值，明晰其变化状况；将分组试验的思想与结构模型相结合，宏观上构建双重差分模型，定量揭示该政策对区域生态系统服务价值变化的影响；微观上运用综合评估模型、遥感模型、量化研究方法、情景模拟、自主编程建模等手段明晰区域主要生态系统服务功能的分布及其时空演变规律，揭示该政策对区域主导生态功能输出及生态系统服务间权衡/协同关系的影响，解析尺度差异导致的生态系统服务间平衡关系演变，明确未来生态系统服务平衡的最优方案；以期为区域国土空间优化及调控、生态保护提供科学依据。

It is one of the hot and difficult issues in current research to scientifically answer to the relationship between ecosystem services and ecological policy, quantitatively reveal the impact of ecological policy on the change of ecosystem services values (ESVs), accurately identify the evolution rule of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in the process of policy implementation, and select the optimal scheme for future ecosystem services balance. Based on the background of national key ecological function zones policy, this project takes Guangxi-Guizhou karst mountain area as an example, estimates the ESVs in county level through the modified market substitution method, and clarifies its change status. Then, combining the idea of group experiment with the structural model, differences in differences (DID) model is constructed on the macro level to quantitatively reveal the influence of the policy on ESVs' changes. On the micro level, the comprehensive evaluation model, remote sensing model, quantitative research method, scenario simulation, self-editing programming technology are used to clarify the distribution and spatio-temporal evolution rules of regional main ecosystem service functions, reveal the impact of policy on regional leading ecological function output and the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services, analyze the evolution of the balance relationship between ecosystem services caused by scale differences, and define the optimal scheme of future ecosystem service balance. This project can provide scientific basis for regional territorial optimization, regulation and ecological protection.