本项目创新性地将前瞻性监控指标（金融机构尾部风险关联性和逆周期因子）引入宏观审慎监管体系，研究构建前瞻性逆周期宏观审慎监管机制设计的问题。首先在深入探讨前瞻性指标与系统性金融风险关联性的基础上，从理论和实证两个层面，测度我国系统性金融风险真实水平及金融部门间及与国际金融市场间的系统性风险传染强度和特征，进一步检验降低金融尾部风险网络关联性是否能够降低我国金融部门间的风险传染，并运用门限面板模型对明斯基时刻进行了预判。同时考察加入逆周期因子的宏观审慎监管能否降低国际金融风险对我国金融市场的冲击。在上述研究基础上，构建加入金融尾部风险网络关联性和逆周期因子及四大宏观审慎金融监管工具的DSGE模型，通过数值模拟和参数校准，对模型进行检验。最后，通过模型分析和实证研究，探明尾部风险网络关联性、逆周期因子与宏观审慎四大监管工具间的最优协调机制，提出构建前瞻性逆周期的宏观审慎监管机制设计和政策安排。

This project innovatively introduces tail risk network correlation and counter-cyclical factor into the macro-prudential supervision system, and tries to construct a prospective counter-cyclical macro-prudential supervision mechanism. Firstly, we explore the correlation between proactive indicators and systemic financial risk. From both theoretical and empirical perspectives, we measure the level of systemic financial risk and the systemic risk of infection between financial sectors and international financial market, further test whether decreasing the financial tail risk network correlation can reduce the risk contagion between financial sectors, and predict Minsky time based on the threshold panel model. Meanwhile we investigate whether macro-prudential regulation including counter-cyclical factor can lessen the shock of international financial risk to China's financial market. Then we inspect the validity of DSGE model which contains the tail risk network correlation and countercyclical factor based on numerical simulation and parameter calibration. Lastly, we prove up an optimal coordination mechanism between the tail risk network correlation, the counter-cyclical factor and the macro-prudential supervision, and put forward a proactive counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulatory mechanism.