害鼠扩散与控制的动力学模型研究

害鼠给经济、生态等带来了巨大损失，控制鼠害是一项长期而艰巨的任务。扩散是鼠类活动中的一种常见现象，害鼠扩散严重影响着具体控制方案的实施效果，扩散动力学模型能很好地反映害鼠变化规律。但由于害鼠扩散研究不仅实验困难，且相应的理论模型极为复杂，没有现成的方法加以运用，现有的研究仅仅有一些零散结果。本项目拟在已有的鼠类行为活动研究的基础上，建立害鼠扩散模型，特别关注种群密度、性别特征、阶段结构等对扩散的影响，并将灭杀控制、不育控制以及释放或招引天敌等控制方式考虑其中，研究在不同类型的控制下害鼠的扩散规律，讨论控制方式、扩散方式、种群特征等对种群发展动态的影响，评估相应的控制效果，重点分析扩散对控制效果的影响。通过野外实验所获得的数据，估计有关参数，修正并确定所建模型，解决鼠害控制中的关键问题，使研究结果得以指导实践，为控制鼠害提供有效策略。该研究成果将为生物种群控制的研究提供新的理论和方法。

Rodent pests cause big damages to economy, ecology and other areas. Rodent pest control is a long-term and difficult task. Dispersal is very common in the behavior of rodent pest, which greatly affects the effects of the concrete control strategies. Dynamical models with diffusion can better reflect the changes in rodent pest with dispersal. But it is hard to do field experiments on rodent pest dispersal and the related theoretical models are very complicated. Therefore, there are no existing methods to be applied and obtained results are scarce. Based on the existing research on rodent pest dynamics, this project will propose models on rodent pests with dispersal. We focus on the effects of dispersal combined with population density, sex, and stage sturcture. We also consider the dispersal of rodent pest under lethal control, sterile control, and releasing or attracting natural enemies. On the one hand, we study how control strategies, dispersal ways, and population characteristics affect the dynamics. On the other hand, we evaluate the effeciency of controls, especially those combined with dispersal. With data from field experiments, we estimate the parameter values and use them to modify the models. We aim to solve the key problems in rodent pest control, apply the obtained results in practice, and provide efficient policy on rodent pest control. This research will enrich the study of population control with new theory and methods.