从因果关系研究中高纬大气环流多因子驱动机理

近年来以数据驱动为主的因果关系方法，期待成为与数值模式并行不悖的新途径，以丰富气候变化中的驱动成因及影响依赖的研究手段。然而目前的研究大多只强调两变量之间的因果关系，较少涉及多变量、多因子的间接依赖关系及共同驱动。针对这一科学问题，本项目拟利用和发展以数据驱动为主的多因子因果关系分析方法，讨论西伯利亚高压、阻塞系统、东亚大槽、北半球环状模、北极海冰等与东亚冬季天气气候过程相互作用与驱动影响的信息传输和因果关系。这对于气候变化中的驱动成因与影响的分析研究来说，它具有很强的针对性和科学参考，不仅找到了一个很好的联系实际气候变化驱动问题的切入点，而且具有多学科交叉融合的特点。在中高纬大气环流对东亚极端天气气候事件的可能机制以及中高纬大气环流的协同效应的机理研究中，可以期待本项目将提供一些新的研究思路和结果。

In recent years, the data-driven causality approach is expected to become an alternative way with GCM numerical model to enrich the means of driving causes and impact dependence in climate change. However, most of the current studies only focus on the causal relationship between the two variables, less on the indirect dependence of multi factors. Therefore, in this proposal we are planning to utilize and develop causality analysis approaches on multi-variables to discuss the information transfer and interactions among Siberian high, blocking system, East Asian Trough, Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, Arctic sea ice and winter climate in East Asia. For the study of driving causes in climate change, this study may not only be a breakthrough point to link with the actual driving mechanism of climate change, but also interdisciplinary. From the prospective view of causality, in this proposal we will try to investigate the possible mechanism of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes to the extreme weather and climate events in East Asia. We hope that this study will provide some new research ideas and results in interactions mechanism of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.