气候过程外强迫因子的提取与分析方法

全球变暖的成因是当今气候科学研究的核心问题，同时也是最具争议的问题。人们争议的焦点主要集中在：是哪些外部强迫因子（自然的还是人为的）造成了当今的气候变化，而这些因子又各自起着怎样的作用。许多科学家认为，引起这些争议主要原因，是由于当前人们使用的数值模拟研究方法因模式自身的缺陷而不能提供一个有说服力的结论。从这个意义上说，外强迫因子的分析技术就成了主要的矛盾。因此，发展新的与气候模式的外强迫分析方法并行不悖的新途径，就成为一个亟待解决的问题。为此，本项目将在近几年出现的单一驱动因子提取方法的基础上，发展适用于多驱动因子的气候系统的分析方法。这些方法将完全依靠实际观测资料，借助于它们的时间序列给出的动力学，客观地分析气候系统内部的驱动关系。本项目对于分析当前气候热点问题全球变暖的成因，有很强的针对性和科学参考。

The causes of global warming is not only the core issue of current climate science research, but also the most controversial issue. The focus of controversy is what external forcing factor (natural or human activities) ruls the climate. Many scientists dispute the numerical simulation methods which may not provide a convincing conclusion. In this sense,techeniques on how to extract the external forcing factors analysis become to be a major contradiction,so establishing the parallel new ways is an urgent problem. Therefore this proposal will base on the single driving factor extraction method and develop multi-factors extraction approaches which are applicable to the analysis of the climate system. These methods will rely entirely on the observed data, by means of the dynamics of the time series and provide an objective analysis of the driven forcings of the climate system. The proposal will present a scientific reference for the current issue of global warming.