换乘成本是居民选择公共交通出行方式时考虑的关键因素之一。客流高峰期，需求与运力失衡状态下乘客往往需要排队等待多班车次，从而导致换乘成本急剧增加，影响乘客出行体验与出行方式选择。为此，亟需研究考虑车辆运力约束与乘客排队行为的公共交通关联车次识别与协同运行问题。本项目首先基于公交卡刷卡数据分析乘客换乘站点选择偏好，通过在站点布设WiFi探针采集乘客到站离站信息、开展意向调研挖掘乘客候车行为模式，综合分析后确定乘客加入/离开候车队列随机事件的触发条件与参数；进而，结合概率论与排队论推导车辆运力约束下换乘乘客随机排队模型，提出嵌入排队模型的线路间关联车次识别与换乘成本演算方法；在此基础上，考虑乘客与企业之间的利益博弈，分别建立轨道交通与干线公交、接运公交关联车次行车计划协同优化模型，并定制算法进行求解，从而为公共交通多方式协同运行提供理论指导与决策支持。

Transfer cost is considered as a key factor that influences residents’ willingness to take public transit services to their destinations. During peak hours, the imbalance between travel demand and transit capacity severely increases passengers’ transfer costs, since they may have to wait in a queue for multiple consecutive trips. It will bring passengers negative experience and influence their travel mode choices. It is thus imperative to investigate the coordinated operation issue of interconnected transit trips considering vehicle capacity constraints and passenger queuing behavior. Firstly, based on smart card data, this project analyzes the transfer stop choice inertia of heterogenous passengers. It then defines the trigger conditions and parameters for random events that passengers join (leave) a queue at transfer stops, based on passenger arrival and departure records captured by WiFi probes and passenger queueing behavior extracted from stated preference surveys. Secondly, a queuing model, allowing for vehicle capacity constraints, is built on the basis of both the probability theory and queuing theory. A novel approach embedded the queuing model is then developed so as to correctly identify interconnected transit trips and measure transfer cost between these trips. Thirdly, two schedule coordination models, which incorporate a trade-off between passenger travel cost and bus operation cost, are put forward respectively for interconnected train and truck (feeder) bus trips. Efficient algorithms are tailored to solve the proposed models. The outcomes of this project will provide theoretical guidance and decision-support tools for the coordinated operation of an integrated transit system.