中低纬度地区地磁感应电流预测模型及风险评估研究

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flowing in long conductor systems on the ground are a well-known space weather hazard. Strong GIC may bring about severe electric blackout, corrosion of oil and gas pipelines and communication outage, leading to economic losses in the society. The impact of GIC on the power networks at middle and low latitudes has attracted attention in recent years with the increase of large-scale power networks. This proposal will investigate the space physics causes of the severe induction phenomenon on the Earth by using both the observation data and global MHD simulation method. We will build a geoelectric field and GIC forecasting model for middle and low latitude regions based on the global MHD model. And we will also estimate the GIC risk of the high voltage power transmission system in these regions under extreme space weather conditions.

地磁感应电流（GIC）是空间天气影响地基高技术系统的重要表现之一。强烈的GIC可能会造成电网停电，电报电话等通讯系统的中断，加速油气管道的腐蚀等，造成巨大的经济和社会损失。近年来随着高技术系统的规模和复杂性不断扩大，中低纬度地区电网受到GIC侵扰的报道逐年增多。对这些地区电网GIC的研究，建模和风险评估变得十分必要。本项目将从观测和数值模拟两方面系统探究影响中低纬度地区地磁感应现象的空间物理因素，研究建立中低纬度地区地磁感应电场和GIC预测模型的方法，并对极端空间天气条件下的中低纬度地区尤其是我国国家电网的GIC风险进行评估。

地磁感应电流（GIC）是空间天气影响地基高技术系统的重要表现之一。强烈的GIC可能会造成电网停电，电报电话等通讯系统的中断，加速油气管道的腐蚀等，造成巨大的经济和社会损失。近年来随着高技术系统的规模和复杂性不断扩大，中低纬度地区电网受到GIC侵扰的报道逐年增多。对这些地区电网GIC的研究，建模和风险评估变得十分必要。本项目从观测和数值模拟两方面系统探究影响中低纬度地区地磁感应现象的空间物理因素，研究建立中低纬度地区地磁感应电场和GIC预测模型的方法，并对极端空间天气条件下的中低纬度地区尤其是我国国家电网的GIC风险进行评估。

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