随着我国经济的快速发展，社会财富和人口高度集中，地震灾害承载体越来越密集和突出。同时，经济发展的不平衡，自然、人文和地理环境差异必然导致不同区域抗震能力不同。同一省份的不同城市、不同区域之间的工程结构、设防水平、人口规模和经济发展水平等有明显的差异，导致其抗震能力显著不同；即便是在同一城市，其市辖区、郊区、城镇和农村等不同地区工程结构抗震能力依然有很大差异。本项目拟通过分析在同一区域内不同地区人口规模、经济发展水平、工程结构构造特点等，建立其以公里网格为单元的抗震能力划分原则；考虑不同分类情况下的建筑物空间分布情况、结构类型及构造特点等因素，研究适用于不同地区的建筑物单体和群体震害预测方法；结合近些年来破坏性地震人员伤亡及损失结果，对地震人员伤亡评估方法开展多因素影响的精细化研究，建立不同地区人员伤亡评估模型。以四川省为例，给出抗震能力分区分类结果、建筑物地震易损性和人员伤亡预测结果。

With the rapid economic development, social wealth and population are highly centralized. Hazard-bearing bodies on earthquake disasters are more and more dense and prominent. At the same time, due to the diversity of economy, natural and cultural environment, the difference of seismic capacity among different districts are huge. Engineering Structures, fortification level, population scale and economic development level have obvious differences in different cities and different regions in the same province, which lead to diverse seismic performance. Even more in the same city, seismic performance of engineering structures also have large difference among municipal district, suburb, town and villages. Principle for seismic capacity division on different regions based on kilometer grid data will be established after analysis on population, economy, characteristics of engineering and earthquake fortification level etc. Methods for earthquake damage prediction of single building and group buildings suitable for different regions will be studied considering on factors of spatial distribution of buildings, structure types and characteristics, building-time and function etc. Combining seismic casualty and losses results of destructive earthquakes happened in recent years, refinement research on seismic casualty assessment will also be carried out under the probabilistic or scenario earthquake. Finally, seismic capacity classification results, building vulnerability and number of casualty of Sichuan province will be calculated for verifying methods.