现阶段海气耦合模式对西太平洋季风槽的季度可预测性及来源分析

西太平洋季风槽是东亚季风系统的重要组成部分，也是影响西太台风活动和预测最直接和最主要的环流因子。然而，其季节可预测性及相关物理机制尚不清楚。本项目将基于欧盟最近的多模式预测计划（ENSEMBLES预测系统）和英国Hadley中心最新的GloSea5业务预测系统，全面评估现阶段海气耦合模式对西太平洋季风槽夏秋季节的季节预测能力，分析季风槽可预测性的物理来源和影响机制，并与西太平洋副高的季节预测进行比较，完善西太平洋大尺度环流系统的可预测性研究。该项目的展开，不仅可以加深对季风槽变化物理机制的认识，还可以为改进我国气候模式、服务我国气候季节预测业务提供重要的科学依据。

The western Pacific monsoon trough is one of the key components in East Asian monsoon system and directly affects the typhoon activities over western Pacific. Nevertheless, seasonal predictability of the monsoon trough and the associated sources and mechanisms remain unclear. This project will firstly evaluate comprehensively predictability of the monsoon trough, using state-of-the-art coupled forecast systems, including the multi-model forecast system (ENSEMBLES) and Hadley Centre newest forecast system GloSea5. This project will then investigate the sources and mechanisms of predictability for the monsoon trough, and further compare them with the predictability of the western Pacific subtropical high, to give a better description of the predictability for the large-scale circulation systems over the western Pacific. The above researches will not only favor our understanding for the mechanism of interannual variation for the western Pacific monsoon trough, but also provide useful scientific background in developing our own climate models and improving our operational forecast capability.