Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5
Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5
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全球季节预报系统第五版巧妙预报中国西部夏季地面气温
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-018-7291-7
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Martin Nicola
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Chaofan;Lu Riyu;Bett Philip E.;Scaife Adam A.;Martin Nicola
夏季地面气温变化是影响我国西部地区水文循环、生态系统和农业生产的重要因素。利用英国气象局的GloSea5业务预报系统，对中国西部SAT的季节预报能力和可靠性进行了评估。有用的预测证明，相当大的技巧，在中国西部大部分地区。模式预报的SAT值与观测值的时间相关系数均大于0.6，在中国西北和青藏高原地区都是如此。在中国西部地区，有两个重要的预报技术来源：西太平洋海温的年际变化和热带太平洋海温的趋势。近20年来热带海温的变化，即西太平洋变暖，东太平洋变冷，对我国西北地区的SAT技术有很大的贡献。此外，西太平洋海温的年际变化也为青藏高原周边的SAT提供了可靠的预报。它不仅调制海洋大陆周围的对流，而且通过周围的环流进一步调制青藏高原SAT的变化。这个过程是明显的，无论是在观测和模式预测的去趋势，并作为一个来源的技巧，在青藏高原的预测。本研究所展示的可预测性和可靠性对于提供极端气候事件预警的气候服务具有潜在的用处，并可能带来有益的经济效益。
Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable skill over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations are larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China: interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
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