干热岩热开采能力评价是干热岩型地热能开发的关键环节。现有评价方法多为确定性分析方法，未考虑热储地质参数不确定性的影响，导致干热岩系统前期设计与实际运行偏差较大，无法达到预期效果。本项目针对这一科学问题，开展如下研究：(1)采用随机场理论，发展基于最优截断Karhunen–Loève展开的干热岩热储典型地质参数三维随机场准确高效生成方法； (2)基于“多层次网格”思想，构建全多重网格—多层次拟蒙特卡罗干热岩热开采能力随机评价模型，实现对热储热-流-固-化多场的高效抽样和样本回收利用；(3)根据所发展方法和模型，在固定的开发方案下，研究分析考虑和不考虑热储地质参数不确定性影响时干热岩全生命周期热储温降、采出温度、生产井采热量等评价指标的差异，在一定置信区间（可靠性）内定量揭示热储地质参数不确定性对干热岩系统热开采能力评价的影响。本项目研究可为干热岩热开采能力的科学评价提供理论支撑。

The evaluation of heat extraction capacity of hot dry rock (HDR) is one key problem in the exploration of hot dry rock geothermal energy. Most of the popular evaluation methods are based on deterministic analysis, in which the uncertainty of reservoir parameters is neglected, leading to the actual operation and overall performance of the HDR system deviate from the original design substantially. To address with this problem, the applicant proposes to carry out the following research tasks: (1) Using the random field theory, we develop an accurate and efficient random filed generation method for the representative reservoir parameters with uncertainty based on the Karhunen–Loève (K-L) expansion considering the optimal truncation of eigenvalue and eigenfunction. (2) Inspired by the “multilevel grid”, we propose a novel stochastic method to evaluate the heat extraction capacity of HDR based on a new full multigrid multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (FMG-MLQMC) model, in which the sampling of thermal-hydraulic-mechanics-chemical (THMC) coupling field can be implemented efficiently with sample recycling technique；(3) Based on above research, the reservoir temperature decline, production temperature and total heat extraction are investigated in detail with and without consideration of uncertainty of reservoir parameters during the whole lifespan of HDR under given completion and operation parameters. Then we carefully reveal the influence of reservoir parameters uncertainty on the evaluation of heat extraction capacity of HDR system in a prescribed confidence interval. By combining these three aspects of research, we expect to provide a theoretical foundation for accurate and scientific evaluation of the heat extraction capacity of HDR system.