快速城市化地区基于土地利用的居民出行碳排放机理与模拟研究- - 以深圳为例

Household daily travel becomes one of the main sources of carbon emission of human beings activities. It is urgent for the world as well as the rapid urbanization areas in China to find efficient measures to reduce and mitigate carbon emission of household daily travels. The proposal takes Shenzhen as a case to study the effect of land use, household status, and transportation supply on carbon emission of household daily travels in rapid urbanization area from the point view of individual, following the household travel cube and the relationship of "land us-travel behavior-carbon emission of household daily travel". First, we will explore the mechanism that how the land use affects the carbon emissions from household daily travels and the quantitative relationships, after establishing indicators of land use, person and household, transportation supply, and carbon emission of household daily travel. Then we will identify several patterns of "land use- carbon emission from household daily travels", and evaluation some low-carbon patterns. Finally, we will construct model and simulate the carbon emissions of household daily travels in various scenes of urban economics transformation. With the simulation, we will propose some land use planning strategies to address the changes of carbon emission of household daily travels. The applications of quantitative methods such as structural equation model, geographically weighted regression, simulation model, and individual point of view in this study are innovative and will contribute to the community of human geography. The study on the mechanism and patterns of the effect of land use on carbon emissions from household daily travels is valuable in practice. The research results can help to understand the relationship between land use and carbon emissions of household daily travels, as well as to improve the research and practice of low carbon city to address the global climate change.

居民出行碳排放是人类活动主要碳源，如何通过土地利用控制和减缓居民出行碳排放以应对气候变化是全球性的重要议题，也是我国快速城市化地区急需解决的重大课题。项目以深圳为例，以居民出行立方体为核心，依照"土地利用-出行行为-居民出行碳排放"的逻辑关系，建立可表征土地利用、个人家庭状况、交通供给与管理以及居民出行碳排放的要素指标并研究它们影响居民出行碳排放的机理及其数量关系；识别若干"土地利用/个人家庭状况/交通供给与管理-居民出行碳排放"的模式并评估；定制模型，对城市经济转型不同发展路径下的居民出行碳排放进行模拟预测并提出应对策略。课题的个体视角、结构方程模型、地理带权回归和模拟模型等方法具有学术创新，有助于深入理解居民出行碳排放，对于加强低碳城市研究与规划、应对全球气候变化具有指导意义。

居民出行行为及其碳排放是当前城市地理和城市规划领域研究热点，也是我国快速城市化地区急需解决的重大课题。.项目以深圳为例，以居民出行立方体为核心，建立可表征土地利用、个人家庭状况、交通供给与管理以及居民出行碳排放的要素指标与机理；定制模型，对深圳市城市发展转型背景下的居民出行碳排放进行模拟预测；分析了深圳代表性的居住形态——城中村中居民通勤距离的特征及其影响因素；研究了建成环境影响空间行为的多尺度关系及尺度效应；基于手机信令、地铁刷卡和出租车等时空行为大数据进行空间交互、城市空间结构和生活圈等方面的研究。.通过以上研究，得到重要结果有：1.探讨了在“建成环境——空间行为——碳排放”关系中5D建成环境指标以及多层次模型、结构方程模型等分析方法的适用性，并提出了居民出行立方体的概念和分析框架；2. 基于深圳市城市总规对居民出行及碳排放进行模拟，结果表明到2020年深圳市居民出行碳排放在未来会大幅度增加，小汽车仍然是碳排放增加的主要原因，减少居民出行碳排放需要大力发展地铁等公共交通的供给；3.基于全样本人口数据提取深圳市职住数据，发现深圳市城中村居民平均通勤距离比一般商品房居民更长，而城中村居民就业可达性、就业地和居住地租金差和交通条件对此都有影响，产业结构调整带来的就业人口结构的变化则是根本原因； 4.对建成环境及空间行为的多尺度关系分析表明，相对不区分尺度的模型，多尺度关系能够更好解释出行的距离和出行方式等行为；5.时空行为大数据可以更好揭示和分析空间交互和城市空间结构等城市地理问题。.关键数据包括：深圳市历年土地利用和建筑普查数据，2005年居民出行调查数据，2014年全样本人口数据和社保缴纳记录；深圳市和珠海市出租车轨迹、地铁刷卡和手机信令数据。.以上研究结果可为转型时期的城市规划、城中村改造以及轨道交通发展提供决策依据。

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