CORDEX-EA II框架下东亚区域高分辨率气候集成模拟及预估中不确定性分析研究

不确定性是区域气候变化和区域气候动力降尺度研究中的客观存在。如何减少东亚地区区域气候模拟的不确定性，提高区域尺度季风气候变化预估的可信度是我国应对适应全球变化的必要条件。本项目拟在WCRP CORDEX-EA II的研究框架下，采用高分辨率数值模拟和集成统计分析相结合的方法，利用多驱动场、多区域气候模式，应用贝叶斯、REA等集成方法，研究10-30年时间尺度上季风气候多模式模拟-预估系统中模式间变率、模式物理过程等不确定性的强度，及其对东亚区域季风气候预估的影响；利用多模式、多驱动场预估结果，构建未来2015-2045年高分辨率的季风亚洲区域气候变化情景，并提供预估意见的可信度参考。项目研究有利于提高我们对提高对亚洲季风区区域尺度上气候变化的认识，并满足我国应对气候变化、适应和缓解全球气候环境变化、降低我国生态环境系统脆弱性的国家需求。

Uncertainty arises from the climatic internal variability, model structure, driving fields and inter-model variability when using dynamical downscaling to simulation regional climate and build climate change scenarios. It is of great importance to adaptation/mitigation community and policy makers to have more accurate regional climate change information, with uncertainty range and magnitude fully addressed. Under the research framework and scientific scopes of WCPR CORDEX-EA II, the project intends to apply high-resolution RCMs that driven by both ERA-interim and multiple GCM, and to fully understand the scope of uncertainty resulting from inter-model variability, model physics, driving fields and internal variability. With application of ensemble analysis using Bayes, REA and PEA, the project will provide the state-of-art high resolution information on Asian regional climate change for the time period of 2015-2045. The completion of the project can improve the understanding of the Asian monsoon climate. It also meets the urgent needs of the nation to make and carry out strategies to adapt/mitigate to global climate change, and to reduce the vulnerability of the ecological system.