复杂政策网络结构分析是应对社会生态系统复杂性和不确定性，以及多元化社会治理结构的新理论视角。本课题拟以农村基层治水组织——农民用水协会为例，结合政策网络模型和IAD理论构建分析框架，对我国基层小型农田水利建设情况与相关问题进行探讨，研究基层水利社区结构与灌溉制度，农民用水协会发展实践及成效，并分析基层用水管理体制及政策网络。在此基础上，分析用水协会与政策环境中各个行动者的互动关系，研究其对不同利益相关者的激励和影响，为基层治水组织应对治理困境与发展机制设计提供解决方案。本文应用定性比较分析和仿真模拟实验相结合的研究方法。仿真模拟是构建复杂政策网络结构的重要实验手段，围绕决策的相关方开展多主体建模，展现微观治水政策网络结构中行动者多方博弈的过程，论证过程以及不同环境变量对决策结果的关联影响。同时，应用定性比较分析方法，结合已确定的关键变量，对预测结果进行实证检验，增加研究的可信度和说服力。

Confronting the complexities and uncertainties of socio-ecological systems, a complex policy network analysis shall be proposd as a practical strategy. This study focuses on the development of water user associations (WUAs) and related governance issues. Based on Marsh & Smith's policy network model and Ostrom's IAD framework, following research questions would be addressed: what is the status quo of local irrigation systems running on-the-field? How local irrigation communities are organized to irrigate? How local water governance systems are structured? And what about the performance of WUAs in practice? To analyze the interaction relationships between WUAs and multi-players within the complex policy network structure, a Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Multi-Agent System Modeling method are combined and used in the study.