随着电子商务的高速发展以及经济全球化不断推进，供应不确定对供应链企业的影响愈发显著。现有供应风险应对研究集中于双源采购、紧急采购等运作管理策略，而概率销售这种营销策略通过定价和产品替代效应在缓解供应不确定风险方面同样有巨大潜力，为企业应对供应不确定风险提供了新的工具和方法，但缺乏相应理论指导。所以本项目研究基于概率销售的供应不确定风险应对策略。项目主要通过建模和求解考虑供应不确定的零售商实施概率销售时的定价和库存决策问题，对比研究概率销售营销策略和双源采购运作策略在供应不确定、供需同时不确定以及二级供应链环境下应对供应不确定风险的机制和效果，探讨零售商的供应风险应对策略选择问题。项目不仅可以挖掘概率销售管理供应不确定风险的潜力，丰富供应不确定风险管理策略研究；还可以拓展概率销售模式下的运作管理研究，为企业缓解供应不确定风险提供理论依据和科学参考。

With the rapid development of e-commerce and the continuous advancement of economic globalization, the impact of supply uncertainty on supply chain companies has become more significant. Existing research about supply risk focuses on operational strategies such as dual source procurement and emergency procurement. Probabilistic selling, a marketing strategy has great potential in supply risk management through pricing and product substitution, provides companies with new tools to mitigate the risk of supply uncertainty. Yet we cannot find corresponding theoretical research on this topic. Therefore, this project studies how to use probabilistic selling to manage supply uncertainty. Through modeling and solving retailer’s pricing and inventory decisions when implementing probabilistic selling under supply uncertainty, this project compares dual sourcing and probabilistic selling with respect to the mechanisms and performance on managing supply uncertainty. This project mainly explores retailers' preference for supply risk coping strategies when supply is uncertain, both supply and demand are uncertain, and in the context of two two-echelon supply-chain. This project will not only exploits the potential of probabilistic selling on mitigating supply uncertainty and enrich the supply risk management research; but also will expand the research of operations management under probabilistic selling, and provide theoretical basis and scientific reference for companies to mitigate supply uncertainty risk.