技术进步对全球极端气候变化及其经济损失的模拟预估研究

全球变暖及极端事件的增加已在全球范围内造成巨大的气候风险和经济损失，因此各国政府致力于气候谈判和制定减排政策以期达到减缓气候变化的目标。相比通过控制生产实现减排，技术进步有助于平衡减排和经济可持续发展，是一种潜在的有效解决气候变化问题的手段。然而，技术进步的气候效应及其经济影响尚不明确。同时，已有减排方案的评估研究或依赖地球系统模式偏重气候效应而无经济影响，或依赖综合评估模型着重经济效应而过度简化气候变化且无法描述极端事件，增加了评估的不确定性。因此，本项目拟利用综合评估模型EMRICE构建未来技术进步情景下的碳排放路径；然后利用地球系统模式CESM模拟各路径下的气候变化，定量评估技术进步在减缓气候变化中的作用；最后改进EMRICE损失函数，引入CESM预估的极端气候指数估算经济影响。本项目结合综合评估模型和地球系统模式揭示技术进步的实施效果，有助于为科学制定应对气候变化的决策提供服务。

Global warming and the subsequent increase of extreme events have caused large climate risks and economic losses around the world. Governments are committed to climate negotiations and emission reduction policies to achieve the goal of mitigation. Controlling production is a direct method of reducing carbon emissions, while technological progress which balance the emission reduction with economic development sustainably, can be effective means for climate mitigation. However, the climate and economic effects of technological progress are not yet clear. In addition, evaluations of emission reduction scenarios either rely on earth system models (ESM) that emphasize climate effect without economic impact, or depend on Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) that focus on economic benefit. Note that uncertainties of evaluations with IAM can be enlarged by the oversimplified climate mechanisms and absence of extreme events in IAM. Therefore, emission paths under the future scenarios of technological progress will be constructed with EMRICE (a kind of IAM) firstly. Then, CESM (a kind of ESM) will be used to simulate the climate change under each scenario. And the role of technological progress in mitigating climate change will be evaluated quantitatively. Finally, the loss function of EMRICE will be improved. And the extreme climate indexes that simulated by CESM, will be used by the loss function to estimate the economic impact. Combining IAM with ESM, the project aims to comprehensively reveal the implementation effect of technological progress and to service for climate policy.