地震-电离层TEC扰动的极性特征分析及其LAI耦合模型验证

近年来大量研究表明，在浅源强震发生期间经常伴随有电离层TEC的空间异常扰动现象。但是，其扰动极性（增加/减少）的特征及规律至今仍未得到充分的认识。因此，本课题将筛选38个地震事例，用以分析地震潜在诱发电离层TEC扰动的极性及幅度（∆TEC）特征，并构建地震-电离层TEC异常特征集。在此基础上，参考Kuo-LAI耦合模型及岩石层“发电机”机制，本课题将开展以下研究：①统计分析地震震源深度和磁纬度因素潜在影响电离层TEC扰动极性变化的差异特征，并据此探寻因岩石挤压而产生不同方向电流的震源深度临界值（或区间），同时逆向验证LAI耦合模型在震源磁纬度条件上的适用尺度；②对比分析特定条件下电离层TEC扰动幅度的差异特性。通过以上研究内容，本课题将梳理地震-电离层TEC扰动极性及幅度的统计学特征，为未来地震监测/预报系统的建立提供有力的支撑，同时在地震-电离层扰动物理机制的研究上取得一定进展和突破。

In recent years, a large number of observational and theoretical studies have shown that the spatial anomalies of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) were often found during the occurrence of strong (Mw > 6.0) and shallow (Depth < 100 km) earthquakes. However, the polarity (increase/decrease) characteristics of the ionospheric TEC anomalies and the internal disciplinarian have not yet been fully understood. Therefore, 38 typical earthquake cases distributed globally were screened in this project, in order to analyze statistically the characteristics of their polarities and amplitude (∆TEC) of the seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies over their epicenters, and then construct the accurate Seismic-ionospheric TEC Anomaly Features Set. On this basis, referring to the Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere (LAI) coupling model proposed by Kuo et al and the mechanism of Lithosphere “Dynamo”, the following analyses will be continued. Firstly, the differential distribution law of the seismo-ionospheric TEC anomaly polarities may be caused by main shocks with different hypocentral depths and magnetic latitudes will be analyzed statistically, in order to explore the depth threshold (or interval) for upward/downward current caused by rock compression, and then validate reversely the applicable scale of the Kuo-LAI coupling model on the condition of magnetic latitude. Secondly, the difference characteristics of the seismo-ionospheric ∆TEC intensity may be caused by earthquakes with varying initial conditions will also be analyzed. Through the statistical analyses above, this project will understand the statistical characteristics of polarity and amplitude of the seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies, and provide convictive case-study and theoretical support for the establishment of the future earthquake monitoring/prediction system, meanwhile, make some progress and breakthroughs in the study of the physical mechanism of seismo-ionospheric disturbance.