公路限速区协调性机理及限速过渡区设置研究

The isolation of speed zones setting and lack of uniform speed limit management leads to the poor conistency of ?operating speed in speed zones, thereby increasing probablity of occurrence of traffic accidents.Although China has carried out speed limit researches for many years,there are sel dom studies on the systematic theories on transtion sections between highway different speed zones.The seed hmogeneity and consistency of speed were introduced into project to interprete to coordation of speed zones.A variety of longitututal models such as GEE ,Panel data, Multi-level models were used to describe speed spatial analysis for speed differernce.The results reavels the genetation mechanism of speed zones.Discret models were aplied to impacts of speed devation and speed defferences of speed zones on traffic safety,which determine when to insert a speed transition zone . According to the the speed limit in adjacent speed zones, speed limits ,traffic accidentss history, roadway gemetory and roadside enviroment, optimal decisition -making model was build to speed limit step in transition zone .Finally, theoretical analysis and driving simulation technology were to explore the transition zone settings, and to determine the transition zone shortest length, traffic signs lead distance .The research results can be applied to provide a scientific basis for the speed transition which is suitable for Chinese drivers.The mechanism can also enrich the theoretical system of road speed limit.

由于我国限速区相对孤立，缺乏统一的限速管理，导致了限速区间的运行车速协调性不佳，从而增加了交通事故的发生概率。虽然我国已经开展了限速方面的相关探索，但在公路不同限速区的衔接方面缺乏系统的理论研究。针对此问题，本研究从车速协调性和车速同质性入手，对不同限速区间的协调机理进行研究，探索限速区过渡衔接机制。使用面板数据、GEE、多水平模型等多种纵向数学模型对限速区间的运行车速差进行时空分析，揭示运行车速差的产生机理。剖析不同限速区运行车速差及限速区内车速离差与交通安全的互动关系，从而确定限速过渡区的设置条件。根据相邻限速区限速、道路环境、路侧条件及安全状况，构建限速过渡区最优限速步长决策模型。最后采用理论分析与驾驶模拟相结合手段，探索限速过渡区设置方法，确定限速过渡区的最短长度，交通标志前置距离等指标。研究成果可为建立适用于我国驾驶人特性的限速过渡机制提供科学依据，也可丰富限速研究的相关理论。

我国公路限速区相对孤立，缺乏统一的限速管理体系，导致了限速区间的运行车速协调性不佳，从而增加了交通事故的发生概率。虽然我国已经公路开展了限速方面的相关探索，但在公路不同限速区的衔接方面缺乏系统的理论研究。本研究在收集国内多个省市高速的车速、交通事故、路侧环境、交通量等基础参数，从车速协调性与同质性入手，对车速协调性机理对交通安全的影响进行探索和研究。高速公路发现立交区、车速差、农村区域、交通量、大车比例等是影响交通安全的主要因素。使用面板数据、GEE等多种纵向数据构建数据模型，分析车速差对交通安全的影响因素。根据道路环境、线形，交通量等属性变量提出有序聚类的分段方法。提出公路限速区和限速过渡段的组成，限速区主要是稳定行驶距离、通过驾驶人实验和理论分析确定最小的稳定驾驶距离，驾驶人舒适度、前置距离等确定限速区和限速过渡区的最短长度。研究成果可为建立适用于我国驾驶人特性的限速过渡段建立提供科学依据，也可丰富限速研究的相关理论。

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