意见领袖及其人际影响机制对新产品扩散的作用机理

新产品的成败，直接影响着企业的兴衰与未来。创新扩散理论认为意见领袖在新产品扩散中起着至关重要的作用，企业也常常使用意见领袖驱动策略来促进新产品的扩散。然而，大量失败的案例说明需要对意见领袖做深入的理论研究。本项目首先从顾客个体层面揭示在新产品采用过程中的意见领袖人际影响机制；在此基础上，从市场整体层面研究意见领袖对新产品扩散的作用机理。研究的创新之处包括：（1）对正面与负面意见领袖进行了区分，考察二者对普通顾客意见与行为的交互作用，特别是二者发生角色转换时的作用机理；（2）考虑新产品采用是一个动态过程，重点考察该过程不同阶段之间意见领袖人际影响动态变化规律；（3）从顾客个体层面的人际影响机制出发，为市场层面的新产品扩散中意见领袖作用机理研究提供真实的“行为基础”。研究成果对弄清意见领袖在新产品扩散中所扮演的角色具有重要的理论价值，对解决企业新产品扩散的难题具有重要的应用价值。

The success or failure of new products is vital for the present and future of an enterprise. Innovation diffusion theory claims that opinion leaders play a big role in new product diffusion. At the same time, enterprises have long tried to target opinion leaders to improve the diffusion of their new product. However, a high number of failed marketing campaigns are associated with the need for future research. This project first explores the interpersonal influence mechanisms of opinion leaders in the process of new product adoption at individual level. And on this basis, the effect of opinion leaders on new product diffusion at market level is examined. The innovativeness of this project includes: (1) distinguishing positive and negative opinion leaders, investigating the interactive effect of them on other customers, especially studying how the role transition of them affect other customers; (2) considering new product adoption is a dynamic process, and then studying how interpersonal influence mechanisms develops; and (3) the above findings will be used as a “behavioral base” to study the role of opinion leaders in the market-level diffusion of new products. Results have important academic value for the theories of innovation diffusion and opinion leader, as well as far-reaching practical value for enterprise stimulating new product diffusion.