全球变化已经成为各国关注的焦点问题。由于森林是重要的陆地生态系统碳汇，并且存在巨大的固碳潜力，因此森林固碳成为减缓全球气候变化影响的首选途径。准确评估我国森林碳动态和固碳潜力，是抵减工业温室气体排放量的基础，也是近年来被持续关注但未得到很好解决的科学问题之一。本项目基于全国森林资源清查样地数据和全国森林碳密度样地数据，补充部分调查样地，1) 分析气温、降水和干扰等因素与森林碳密度的关系，结合分析我国主要森林树种最适分布区的变化趋势，进而得到气候变化对我国森林碳容量和固碳潜力空间格局的可能影响；2) 建立我国主要森林的碳密度-林龄曲线，确定我国主要森林生态系统碳容量的参考水平，完善基于我国森林资源清查数据评估森林碳动态和固碳潜力的方法和模型；3) 评估基线水平、演替、新增造林和新增采伐四种情景下的我国主要森林碳动态和固碳潜力。本研究对正确理解我国未来森林碳源/汇及其空间分布规律具有重要意义。

Global climate change is focused on by all countries in the world. Because forests are an important carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems and have huge carbon sequestration potential, are the preferred path to mitigate effects of global climate change. Precisely assessing the carbon change and carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests is the basis of reducing industrial emission, and is one of the continue concerned but have not been well solved scientific issues. In this proposal, based on site data of Forestry Resources Inventory of China, Forest Carbon Inventory of China, and added sample plots, we aim to: 1) analyze the relationship of forest carbon density to temperature, precipitation and disturbance, combined with analyze the change trend of optimum region of major forest types in China, and then analyze the potential influence of climate change to spatial patterns of carbon carrying capacity and carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests, 2) establish carbon density-stand age relationship in major forest types in China, determine the reference level of ecosystem carbon carrying capacity of the major forest types in China, improve assessing method and model of carbon change and carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests, 3) assess carbon change and carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests under the scenarios of baseline level, succession, afforestation and adding harvest. This study will have importance implications in understanding carbon sinks / sources of forests and their spatial patterns at a contry scale.