基于情景建构的群体性突发事件“应急策略-网络结构”协同演化机制

群体性突发事件成为影响我国社会和谐稳定的突出问题之一。现有应急管理研究很少涉及到非常规情景分析和应急策略-网络结构的协同演化机制。本项目以国家重大需求和学科前沿为导向，基于建构主义情景分析，揭示应急策略与社会网络结构的协同演化机制。首先，充实案例库并归纳，提炼出群体性突发事件的应急策略情景依赖特征和协同演化特征；第二，区分客观不确定性情景要素和主观价值冲突情景要素，对于前者采用动态贝叶斯网络和交叉影响平衡分析，对于后者基于建构主义情景分析思路，采用认知图技术构建各群体的心智模型，并加以整合或博弈；第三，将社会网络结构看做内生变量或外生参数，构建策略-结构协同演化博弈的数理模型；最后，模拟分析策略-结构的协同演化机制。本项目遵循"社会调研-数理建模-模拟分析"的技术路线，剖析群体性突发事件的非常规情景演化过程，揭示应急策略与网络结构的协同演化机制，为国家完善应急预案提供基础理论指导和决策参考

Mass emergency becomes one of the outstanding problems affected Chinese society harmony and stability. Existing literatures about emergency management rarely involve the unconventional scenario analysis and coevolutionary mechanism between emergency strategy and network structure. In the direction of the state strategic demands and discipline frontiers, the project discerns the coevolutionary mechanism of mass emergency based constructivism scenario analysis. Firstly, the scenario dependency and coevolutionary characteristics of emergency strategy in mass emergency are refined according to improved case library. Secondly, two type scenario factors of objective uncertainty and subjective value conflicts are distinguished. The former should be analyzed by Dynamic Bayesian Network and Cross-impact Balances Analysis, and the latter should be analyzed along with the idea of constructivism scenario analysis, which uses Cognitive Maps to construct mental models of various social groups, and then integrates them or plays hypergame. Thirdly, social network structure factors should be taken as endogenous variables or exogenous parameters, and then the mathematical model of "strategy - structure" coevolutionary game is proposed. Lastly, social simulation analysis is applied into "strategy - structure" coevolutionary mechanism of mass emergency. Following the technical route of "social investigation - mathematical modeling - simulation analysis", the project analyzes the evolutionary course of unconventional scenario, and then discerns the "emergency strategy - network structure" coevolutionary mechanism of mass emergency. The research provides the basic theoretical guidance and policy suggestions to improve the emergency response plan.