Job Shop调度风险聚集影响机理与建模方法

Job Shop生产中存在的设备故障、原材料供应短缺、紧急到达的工件等不确定因素常常并发，导致生产进度拖延、加工成本上升、调度方案的鲁棒性与稳定性降低，是调度系统面对的主要风险。本项目聚焦于Job Shop调度风险研究领域，对风险聚集的影响机理与建模方法进行探索。分析Job Shop调度风险特征，建立并发风险的辨识方法；分析随机风险和认知风险对调度性能的影响方式，建立风险影响量化评估模型；探讨多风险聚集影响机理，提出随机风险与认知风险对调度影响的叠加方法，建立多风险聚集量化评估模型；建立仿真系统，验证Job Shop调度风险模型与方法的有效性。研究将为Job Shop调度风险分析提供理论基础，为生产调度过程管控提供创新研究方法。

There are a lot of uncertainties in job shops, such as machine breakdowns, shortage of raw materials and rush orders, usually they appear at the same time, and they will lead to delay in makespan, increase in cost, reduce in robustness and stability of job shop scheduling. They are the main risks the job shop scheduling has to be faced. The project focuses on the analysis and modeling of risks in job shop scheduling. The methodology of identification and modeling of concurrent risks will be studied by using theory of risk analysis. The identification and clustering methods of the risks in job shop scheduling will be studied, so that the risks can be expressed more accurately and confidently. For the aleatory risk or epistemic risk, the way that the risk affects the job shop scheduling will be analysized, and the evaluation model will be set up. For the risk aggregation, the reason for influence of concurrent risks to the job shop scheduling will be studied, and a combined model for evaluation of concurrent risks will be put forward. A simulation system will be developed based on Teconomatix and MATLAB, and the usefulness of the method will be demonstrated. The project will set up a theoretical foundation for identify and model of risks in job shop scheduling. It will also provide a new method to control the production in job shop.