生计资本视角下西北地区生态移民政策的收入效应及优化路径研究

制定和实施切实有效的生态移民政策对于促进我国西北地区脆弱生态系统的恢复重建，改善贫困人口的生存状态具有重要作用。本研究从移民收入增长角度评价西北地区现行生态移民政策的效果，分析政策作用机理，研究其优化路径。首先，利用倾向评分匹配法使移民户和非移民户成为配对农户，建立倍差法回归模型测算生态移民政策的收入效应；其次，构建“生态移民政策→生计资本→收入”这一政策作用机理分析框架，运用结构方程模型研究生态移民政策对移民收入的影响机理；再次，考虑资金约束从瞄准重点扶持对象和明晰政策措施优先序两个角度，提出优化政策效果的路径；最后，对西北地区4个生态移民工程所在地的移民及相关政策措施进行实证分析，制定西北地区生态移民后期扶持实施方案，对现行生态移民政策的完善和优化提出对策建议。本研究为检验生态移民政策的实施效果、完善生态移民干预方式提供理论框架和实证参考，同时为政府制定和完善生态移民政策提供科学方案。

The formulation and effective implementation of ecological migration policy play an important role on the restoration of fragile ecosystems and living conditions improvement of poor people in Northwest China. From the perspective of migrant income growth, the study evaluates the effect of the existing ecological migration policy in Northwest China, studies the policy mechanism and analyses policy optimization paths. First of all, measures the income effect of ecological migration policy with difference-in-difference (DID) method by matching the migrant and non-migrant with Propensity Score Matching (PSM). Secondly, studies the mechanism of ecological migration policy with Structural Equation Model (SEM) in the analysis framework of "ecological migration policy - livelihood capital - income". Thirdly, considering funding constraints, put forward the two policy optimization paths, which are targeting key support object and clearing policy measures in priority order. Finally, the ecological emigration late-stage support implementation in Northwest China will be developed and suggestions and recommendations will be put forward to optimize the policy for ecological migration, after the empirical analysis about four typical ecological migration regions located in Northwest China. The research can provide theoretical framework and empirical evidences for the policy evaluation and optimization, and the research conclusions can also be used as the theoretical basis and scientific plan for the government to design public policy.