虚拟水贸易可跨区域优化水资源配置，是保障气候变化下水安全和粮食安全的一种新选择。本研究结合实体水和虚拟水，建立区域广义水资源系统框架，揭示虚拟水贸易带动实体水流动的机理，基于Penman-Monteith方程和CROPWAT模型对粮食虚拟水含量及其区域差异性进行测算，进而研究虚拟水贸易对水短缺风险的对冲机理。对全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)进行拓展，形成嵌入虚拟水要素的GTAP-W模型，模拟不同的水资源约束下适宜的虚拟水贸易模式，在保障粮食安全前提下，优化粮食国际贸易结构、调整国内区域间种植结构和贸易格局，实现虚拟水贸易对气候变化的动态响应过程。为引导这种积极响应过程，建立动态投影寻踪水量配置模型和农业种植结构多目标优化模型，提出气候变化下"工程-技术-贸易"系统集成水资源优化措施。本研究从优化区域间虚拟水贸易的角度，实现水资源跨区域调配，为气候变化条件下保障粮食安全提供新的思路和决策途径。

Virtual water trade can optimize the allocation of water resources across the region, so it is a new choice to ensure food security and water security under the climate change. We combine physical water and virtual water, and establish a framework of regional generalized water resources system and find the mechanism of virtual water trade flows driven by physical water. Based on Penman-Monteith equation and CROPWAT model, we calculate virtual water content of food and the regional differences of that, and study the hedging mechanism of virtual water trade response to water shortage risk. Then we expand the global trade analysis model (GTAP) to propose GTAP-W model embedding elements of virtual water, and simulate the appropriate virtual water trade patterns under different water constraints to optimize the structure of international food trade, adjust planting structure and trade patterns between regions of China, and reach virtual water trade on the dynamic response to climate change under the premise of ensuring food security. In order to lead to the positive response process, we create a dynamic allocation model of tracking water and agricultural planting structure multi-objective optimization model and propose 'Project - Technology - Trade' system of water resources integrated optimization measures under the climate change. From the optimization of inter -regional virtual water trade, this study provides a new way of thinking and decision-making to ensure food security under the climate change by allocating inter-regional water resources.