环杭州湾城市群土地利用空间冲突动态模拟研究

土地利用空间冲突是城市化进程中各种矛盾形成与激化的空间投影，是新型城市化发展的核心和首要问题。基于空间冲突等理论的土地利用空间冲突动态模拟研究主要着力于城市群土地利用空间系统的结构、过程与功能，是进行城市群土地利用空间保护与恢复重建以及其他空间资源配置的前提与基础。为此，本项目以我国城市化进程最为迅速的长江三角洲环杭州湾城市群为案例区，利用"自下而上"的建模思想和复杂空间系统模拟方法，以近35年的遥感图像及其对应时期的土地利用、水资源、人口、交通和其他相关规划与统计数据为基本信息，建立耦合多主体系统（MAS）和元胞自动机（CA）的城市群土地利用空间冲突时空演变动态模拟模型，依据不同情势下的土地利用空间冲突模拟结果，揭示土地利用空间冲突演变过程、演变机制和演变趋势，有望提供对于"过程-机制-模拟-情景-应对"的城市群土地利用空间管理的关键理论依据和实践支撑。

The space conflicts of land use (SCLU) are the reflection of sharpening the inconsistency of China Urbanization process, which is the primary problem of New Urbanization. Based on the theories of spaces colliding, spatially systematic structures, courses, and functions of urban agglomeration have been studied by dynamically simulating the SCLU. It is the preliminary and foundation of establishing the urban agglomeration, reconstruction, and other space resources distribution. Hence, cities in Hangzhou Bay, urban agglomeration developed fastest among the areas of Yangtze River Delta, will be taken as a case area in this study. Based on the idea of "bottom-up", with the systematic simulation method of complex space as well as the remote sensing images and the corresponding statistical data i.e. land use, human resources and communication within 35 years, the spatial-temporal dynamical simulation of the SCLU will be conducted by coupling the Multi-Agent-System (MAS) and Cellular Automata (CA). With modeling results in different conditions, reveal the processes, mechanisms, and the tendency of Evolution about the conflicts of dimensional land usages. This study will provide the core theoretical proof and practical support to better manage the dimensional land usages with the method of "processes, schematics, simulations, scenarios,and responses.