养老风险是指人在年老时，由于缺乏生活保障而遭受生存危险的意外性和不确定性。长寿风险和人口老龄化给我国居民带来了巨大的养老风险。本项目通过构建死亡率模型及相关随机过程模型来刻画长寿风险及相关影响因素（劳动收入、利率、通胀因素）的动态变化情况，基于生命周期模型，根据各种实际需要、市场设置和现实条件研究养老风险背景下的资产配置问题。这些问题包括个人和家庭的最优投资、消费、健康投入和寿险决策问题。特别是，我们考虑了健康因素、参数或模型不确定性、下方风险控制、现实约束（如消费习惯、最低保障）下的投资-消费问题。利用动态规划、最优控制、数值优化等方法和技术对模型进行分析性求解或数值求解。进而，根据我国实际人口、经济数据，借助赋值模拟、实证分析或计算实验方法对所得的结果进行检验，并给出经济解释及政策建议。其研究成果将丰富并发展家庭金融和养老金融的理论研究，为个人和家庭应对养老风险提供科学建议和决策依据。

The pension risk refers to the accident and uncertainty that people suffer from the danger of survival because of the lack of life security in their old age. The longevity risk and the aging of population have brought great uncertainty to the pension of resident in our country, which leads to a huge pension risk for individuals, families and government. Under this background, this project first describes the longevity risk and related influence factors (such as labor income, interest rate, inflation) through the mortality model and some stochastic process models, respectively, and uses the life-cycle model to study the relevant asset allocation problems by considering the together with the actual requirements, market settings, and realistic conditions. These problems include the optimal investment, consumption, health spending and life insurance strategies for individuals or families. In particular, we consider the investment-consumption problems for cases with considering health factor, parameter or model uncertainty, downside risk control and some realistic constraints (such as consumption habit and minimum guarantee constraints). Utilizing approaches such as dynamic programming, stochastic optimal control, stochastic analysis, numerical optimization and so on, we will also seek analytical or numerical solutions for these models. Further more，according to the actual situation of our country and historical data, with the help of the methods of numerical simulation and empirical analysis and computational experiment, this project intends to test the results and give the corresponding economic explanations and policy suggestions. Therefore, the results of this research will enrich and develop the studies on the theory of family finance and pension finance, provide scientific suggestion and decision-making basis when individuals and families deal with problems of managing pension risk.