模糊环境下面向可持续发展的应急组织指派与协作优化策略研究

应急组织在灾害运作管理中扮演着至关重要的角色。为了缓解幸存者痛苦，满足救援过程在社会、环境和经济方面的可持续要求，以及应对救援活动的不确定性，研究如何设计模糊环境下面向可持续发展的应急组织指派与协作优化策略是新时代公共安全领域面临的重要挑战和机遇。基于此，结合语义X列表理论，建立面向可持续发展的应急组织指派与协作优化支撑框架。然后，在考虑任务顺序和疲劳效应的基础上，构建面向可持续发展的应急组织指派多目标、两阶段和双层模糊整数规划模型；设计混合全局准则算法、改进和嵌套式遗传算法对其进行求解。最后，在考虑信任和多技能等特征的基础上，建立模糊环境下面向可持续发展的应急组织协作演化博弈模型；结合期望值方法，设计高效的求解策略。研究成果为融入可持续发展理念和模糊特征的应急组织指派与协作优化策略的设计提供新思路和科学方法，为可持续发展理论与灾害运作管理的纽带建立提供理论依据。

Emergency organization plays a significant role in disaster operations management. To decrease human suffering, meet the social, environmental and economic sustainability requirements of rescue process, and cope with the uncertainties of rescue activities, study on how to design sustainable development oriented optimization strategies regarding emergency organization allocation and coordination under fuzzy environment is an important challenge and opportunity in the field of public safety in the new era. Aiming to address this issue, an optimization enabling framework for sustainable development oriented emergency organization allocation and coordination is proposed based on Semantic Bill of X. Then, multi-objective, two-stage and bi-level fuzzy integer programming model of emergency organization allocation with the consideration of task sequence and fatigue effect are constructed. Simultaneously, hybrid global criteria method, improved and nested genetic algorithm are devised to solve the proposed models. Finally, two evolutionary game models for sustainable development oriented emergency organization coordination with trust and multi-skill consideration under fuzzy environment are established. In addition to that an efficient solution strategy with the concern of the expected value method is designed to solve these models. Results could provide new ideas and the scientific approach to design the optimization strategies concerning emergency organization allocation and coordination taking into account sustainable development and fuzzy characteristics. Furthermore, they will produce theoretical proofs to support the linkage establishment between sustainable development and disaster operations management.