高致病性禽流感病毒H5N1在贸易全球化、候鸟迁徙、禽类制品运输等环境下已发展为全球性的重大公共卫生问题，对各国养殖业和人类健康造成严重危害。前期研究已建立全球H5N1的暴发数据库，发现潜在的欧非交界处的高暴发风险区域，建立时空再生数指标明确指出掌握其时空动态传播规律的重要性。本课题进一步将地理空间信息技术、流行病学和生物信息学技术相结合，基于数学的Dempster-Shafer证据理论和仓室模型整合地理学的疾病聚集族、流行病学预测的风险分布及病毒进化变异与传播力等建立可信度函数，构建多宿主动态模型系统，综合推断H5N1在人-禽-野鸟种内与种间的传播规律、明确主导的宏观地理因素和微观分子变异信息，呈现发病高风险的区域分布，确定中国在其传播中的地位和作用，为制定有效防控干预策略、合理分配卫生资源提供科学依据，对开展其它疾病的交叉学科研究提供技术与方法支持。

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 has become a global issue of public health due to the globalization of trade, global migration of wild birds, and transportation of poultry and poultry productions. This has severely damaged human health and poultry industry. In our preliminary studies, we established the global outbreak databases of HPAI H5N1 and found a newly appearing high-risk region located in the boundary of Europe and Africa. Further, the importance of understanding spatio-temporal dynamic spreading pattern of HPAI H5N1 was highlighted with two indices of reproductive number (R0)-spatial R0 and spatio-temporal R0. Continuing from previous work, this study will integrate the tools of geospatial information techniques, traditional epidemiology, and bioinformatics to build the spatio-temporal geographic and molecular databases of HPAI H5N1. Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and compartment model from the field of mathematics will be applied to combine the results of disease clusters from geography, predicted risk regions from epidemiology, and phylogenetic analysis results from bioinformatics to build the belief function and establish the multi-host dynamic compartment model system, which are used to infer the spatio-temporal dynamic spreading pattern of HPAI H5N1 within and among human, poultry and wild birds, identify the associated macro- and micro- driving factors, and depict the spatial distribution of high risk regions. Finally, the role of China in the process of global spreading of HPAI H5N1 will be identified. The results obtained in this study can not only provide scientific proofs for making effective strategy of controlling HPAI H5N1 and rational allocation of limited health resources, but also contribute some useful techniques and methods for similar interdisciplinary studies on other infectious diseases.