当前京津冀区域处于我国O3污染髙值区，且O3浓度在过去二十年逐年上升。本项目拟在该区域开展O3污染与反应机制的历史追溯研究及未来防控技术策略研究。项目拟基于国控点污染物浓度公告、课题组前期观测、本项目观测，掌握2013-2022年典型城市O3与前体物NO2、VOC、CO浓度信息；基于课题组前期积累和本项目计算，获得2013-2025年O3前体物排放清单；利用WRF-CMAQ模式，在同一气象条件，开展不同年度前体物排放下的区域O3模拟。综合上述观测、清单和模拟，分析2013-2020年区域前体物排放变化对O3浓度的影响，预测2025年区域O3污染风险。基于模式，开展2013-2020年不同前体物排放下的O3形成控制机制和前体物敏感性研究，探索其未来变化趋势。基于敏感性分析结果，设计2025年O3污染协同控制方案；基于方案模式模拟，制定协同控制优化策略；基于线性规划方法，制定控制措施优化方案。

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is exposed to high surface ozone (O3), and its ozone concentration has increased year by year in the past two decades. And this project tries to focus on the O3 pollution over BTH region, collect 2013-2022 ambient concentrations of O3 and its precursors based on China’s national air quality monitoring station data for O3, NO2 and CO, VOC observations by previous work and this project, obtain 2013-2025 precursors emission inventories in this region based on previous work and this project, and simulate regional O3 during May-September through WRF-CMAQ by using different emission inventories in 2013-2025 and using the same meteorological condition. Then, combining above observations, emission inventories and simulations of O3 and its precursors, we aim to capture the influence of precursors emission change on regional O3 during 2013-2022 and forecast the risk of regional O3 pollution in 2025. In O3 simulation model, the ozone formation mechanism and ozone sensitivity to precursors during 2013-2020 will be studied by using indicator assessment method and High-order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM), and their behaviors in 2025 will in further be forecasted. Ultimately, we try to design the precursors collaborative control schemes for 2025 O3 based on above sensitivity analysis, and carry out the optimization research on collaborative control strategy through brute force simulations and the optimization research on specific control measures through linear programming method.