气候变化和人类活动对川金丝猴种群遗传格局及地理分布变迁的影响

Climate change and human activities may shrink and/or shift animal species ranges thereby decreasing their genetic diversity, increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation, so revealing of population demography and distribution shift is very important to forecast species’ responds to climate change. Golden snub–nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is endangered primate species endemic to China. Its populations are isolated in some mountains at present because of habitat fragmentation resulted from climate change and human activities. To reveal its responding mechanism to climate change and human activities during its evolutionary history, the impacts of climate change and human activities on its distribution, and forecast its distribution shift in the future, we will conduct this study based on integrative analysis of the climate data in the history and the future, human activities and genetics. Using species distribution models and population genomes in present study, we aim to analyze which climate facts are important to affect its distribution shift, discuss the impact differences between climate change and human activities on populations, and uncover this species’ responding mechanism to climate change and human activities. Then, we will clarify and confirm the suitable habitat for this species at present and prior conservation units, and forecast the effects of ongoing and future climate changes and the different intensity of human disturbance mode on the population demography and distribution shifts of this species, so we will can provide the support for this species conservation.

理解物种种群遗传结构与地理分布变迁对于预测其如何响应气候变化和人类活动干扰十分必要。川金丝猴是中国特有的濒危灵长类动物，由于气候变化和人为活动干扰，栖息地破碎化，且种群呈现分隔分布状态。为了探讨川金丝猴未来的变化趋势，应了解其在过去进化历史上是如果响应气候变化、其现在格局又是如何受到历史和现今气候以及人为干扰影响和决定的，从而揭示影响其演化过程的气候因素。本项目在川金丝猴种群基因组学研究的基础上，基于历史时期和未来气候变化、以及当前人类活动干扰数据，采用物种分布模型（SDMs），分析可能影响其分布区变化的主要气候因子，探讨并解析气候变化和人类活动对其不同种群的差异性影响，揭示川金丝猴种群应对气候变化和人为干扰可能的响应机制，阐明其当前的适宜分布特点和优先保护单元，并预测在未来不同时期气候情景及不同强度人为干扰模式下其种群动态和分布区的变化趋势以及可能的应对机制，为其 科学保护提供理论依据。

本项目基于野外调查、以及物种分布模型和种群基因组的分析，分析了川金丝猴的种群变化现状，探讨了气候变化和人类活动对川金丝猴栖息的影响以及导致川金丝猴种内的遗传分化机制，预测了川金丝猴在将来气候变化下栖息地的变化趋势，揭示了川金丝猴响应气候变化的应对机制，确定了优先保护单元，提出了相应的保护建议。研究结果表明，川金丝猴种群数量和栖息地有着明显的增加，建议将川金丝猴在IUCN的风险等级由濒危（EN）降为易危（VU），并认为为秦岭种群和神农架种群仍然处于濒危的境地；气候变化导致了川金丝猴各地理种群间分布变化，进而导致各地理种的有效种群收缩和基因流中断，从而形成了不同的遗传地理单元；当前三个川金丝猴地理种群的适宜栖息地总面积为22,906.48 km2，但在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种可能的排放情景下，预计到2070年川金丝猴的适宜栖息地将分别减少23.69%、13.94%、24.81%和14.73%；在未来的气候变化条件下，神农架地理种群可能更加脆弱，建议可以划定为优先保护单元，从而进行针对性和预见性的保护。该研究结果将为川金丝猴目前和将来的保护对策制定提供了科学依据。

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