本研究团队已经收集了1985-2017年中国全部专利以及互相引用的数据，2000-2016年海关贸易数据，1998-2013年工业企业数据，以及其他相关数据，梳理了国内外贸易与创新相关的研究成果，构建了初步分析框架，计划在实证层面验证国际贸易对于创新的影响，尤其是对于创新质量的影响，在理论层面将技术在国内区域-行业的扩散引入国际贸易模型中，刻画国际贸易引致的创新在国内扩散带来的乘数效应，并通过结构估计方法，估计国际贸易引致技术创新在国内扩散带来的福利改进的大小。在此基础上，本研究将提供多种“反事实”估计结果，假定“贸易摩擦”成为常态，主要发达国家都对中国增加关税，在考虑到国内技术扩散的因素后，对我国整体福利的影响；假定主要发达国家对中国进行技术封锁对我国整体福利的影响；假定国内技术扩散加速情况下我国整体福利变化。最后，为国家的贸易和创新政策提供丰富的定量决策基础。

Our research team collected data of all patents and their citations from 1985 to 2017 in China, custom trade data from 2000 to 2016, industrial survey data from 1998 to 2013, and many other related data sets. We surveyed relevant literatures of trade and innovation on the research frontier and built up an analytical framework. We’ll examine the effect of trade on innovation, especially the effect on the quality of innovation. And then, we’ll introduce the internal spatial technology diffusions into the trade model and elaborate multiplier effect of the internal technology diffusion on national welfare. Further, we’ll empirically test the effects. And then, we’ll quantify the magnitude of internal technology diffusion effect on the welfare in a structural model. At last, we’ll utilize the results to construct various counterfactuals under some scenarios with potential policy implications. Our results from the counterfactuals will supply many insightful quantitative foundations for policy makers when they are engaging international trade policy and innovation policy.