中国-东盟地缘经济竞合的演变机理及优化策略研究

东盟地处太平洋和印度洋的交界之地，是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”地区经济合作的重点区域，具有十分重要的地缘战略位置。世界主要大国正围绕与东盟的关系展开激烈角逐，同时，中国的“一路一带”战略稳步实施。在此地缘背景下，探索中国-东盟地缘经济竞合的演变机理，采取灵活策略实现国家利益适度最大化并确保国家地缘经济安全，就成为亟需解决的关键科学问题。然而，目前学界侧重中国-东盟地缘经济竞合现状、问题和对策的研究，缺乏演变机理及策略优化的解析。因此，本项目首先从时空视角，采用欧氏距离法解析中国-东盟地缘经济竞合的时空演变。其次，从要素综合视角，采用结构方程法探析中国-东盟地缘经济竞合的演变机理。最后，从可控演变视角，采用计算实验法优化策略组合。研究成果不仅能丰富地缘经济研究的理论内涵和方法体系，促进地理学与其他学科交叉融合，而且有助于释放中国-东盟地缘经济的合作潜力，为我国政府部门的决策提供建议参考。

ASEAN is located at the junction of Pacific Ocean and India Ocean. It is an important economic cooperation area of “Maritime Silk Road” and plays a vital geo-strategic role. The world's major powers around the ASEAN-based relationships compete fiercely. Meanwhile,“One Belt and One Road”national strategy is carried out steadily. In this context, how to explore the evolution mechanism of geo-economic coopetition between China and ASEAN, and adopt flexible strategies to maximize national interest and ensure national geo-economic security has become a key scientific problem to be solved in the field. However, The current studies focus on status quo, problems and countermeasures of geo-economics between China and ASEAN，while literature about the evolution process, mechanism and optimization strategy is relatively limited. Therefore, this paper tentatively solves the problem. Firstly, from spatio-temporal perspective, this project analyzes the evolution process and patterns of geo-economic coopetition between China and ASEAN by using Euclidean distance method. Secondly, from factors synthesis perspective, the project explores evolution mechanism by using structural equation method. Finally, from controlled evolution perspective, it puts forward and elevates optimization strategies by using computing experimental methods. The research is of great significance not only for enriching theoretical research of geo-economics, facilitating the integration of geography and other disciplines, but also for promoting the implementation of “Belt and Road” strategy, releasing cooperation potential between China and ASEAN, and providing a reference for policies decisions of government and relevant departments.