考虑延迟排放效应的非CO2温室气体排放模型开发及其应用研究

HFCs emission from air conditioning refrigeration and SF6 emission from power sector are non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and increasing faster in the future in China. They are of delay emission characteristics from injection to leak stage, and limited research are available on their emissions of the future trend and reduction potential. This study will focus on the delay effect and cumulative effect of these two types of greenhouse gas emissions, thus reducing the uncertainty in estimating the future emissions trend, and more scientific support to the simulation and estimation on the future global average temperature rise. More in detail, this study, based on the analysis the status of the emission of greenhouse gas with delay effect, emissions source and emissions mechanism, equipment aging and retirement, using the Weibull model, will develop a non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions model. Considering the actual situation in china, case studies on typical greenhouse gas in the typical sectors are carried out to simulate their future emissions trend and reduction potential, which aims to demonstrate the proposed model on non-CO2 emission are scientific and reasonable. And finally some policy suggestions and recommendations on non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission are put forward based on our model and results.

空调制冷剂HFCs排放和电力部门SF6排放是我国未来增加较快的非CO2温室气体排放，存在着从加注到泄漏的跨阶段延迟排放特点，其未来排放趋势和减排潜力分析非常缺乏。本研究将重点考虑这两类温室气体的延迟排放效应和累积效应，从而降低对未来温室气体排放总量估算中的不确定性程度，更加科学地支撑对未来全球平均温升的模拟和估算工作。具体而言，本研究将分析该类温室气体排放现状、排放来源、排放机理、并分析使用设备的老化和报废规律等；利用Weibull函数方法，建立考虑延迟排放效应的非CO2温室气体排放模型；结合我国实际情况，对典型部门和典型非CO2温室气体的未来排放趋势和减排潜力进行案例研究，实证该模型方法的合理性和科学性；为我国非CO2温室气体排放控制的相关政府决策提供科学依据。

该项目按预期研究计划执行，完成预期研究内容，达到预期研究目标。本项目首先基于各类温室气体排放现状、排放来源、排放机理和未来排放趋势，结合我国实际情况和双碳目标，构建了考虑延迟排放效应的非CO2温室气体排放模型。其次应用该模型，并结合多个能源和碳排放分析模型，对能源系统、工业、交通、电力等部门的未来排放趋势和减排潜力进行典型案例研究，验证该模型方法的合理性和科学性。最后结合能源系统低碳转型路径研究，更加准确估计我国未来温室气体排放总量、减排潜力，为我国中长期低碳排放战略、全国碳市场建设、非CO2温室气体排放控制提供重要决策依据和技术支撑。该项目已经正式发表学术论文18篇，其中国际学术论文10篇，中文核心5篇（预期6篇学术论文，其中国际学术论文3篇以上）。其中第一标注7篇，第二标注6篇。发表期刊包括：Science，Energy Economics，Journal of Industrial Ecology，Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews，Advances in Climate Change Research，Energy Policy，Petroleum Science，清华大学学报（自然科学版），可再生能源，中国电力等SCI期刊或者中文核心期刊。提交3篇政策建议。培养青年学者4名（预期4名），培养博（硕）士研究生3名（预期3名）。项目成员积极参与国内外学术交流，主办或参加不低于5次国内外学术研讨会。

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