空间天气因果链思想为从“源”到“汇”逐环节进行链式预报提供了理论基础，并在数值预报的努力中取得了显著成效。但在数值预报还未业务化的阶段，空间天气预报实际上更多地依赖于统计性的定性预报，而不是定量的链式预报。缺乏统一的、能体现空间天气事件因果特征的量化指标体系是实现定量链式预报的重要科学瓶颈。本项目将首次使用统一的方法来分析整个日地因果链，力争用自洽的、量化的指标体系来描述空间天气因果链的整体行为，为实现定量的链式预报奠定理论和方法基础。项目将利用自主提出并已成功应用的“白谱法”，统一构建适用于空间天气主要区域的新型指数，分析新指数的物理意义，利用新指数研究空间事件的链式传播，探讨控制这些指数的基本物理过程，并以此为理论和方法基础进行链式预报的新尝试。本项目的研究结果不仅会显著提升空间天气因果链理论的实用性，也将为空间天气学研究提供新的思路和方法，同时还将直接应用于实际的预报业务。

The theory of the space weather causal chain provides a theoretical basis for the chain prediction from the source to the sink, and has achieved some achievements in the field of space weather numerical prediction. However, at present the numerical forecast is not yet operational, the weather forecast is more dependent on the statistical qualitative prediction than the quantitative chain forecast. The lack of a unified quantitative index system that can reflect the cause and effect of space weather events is an important scientific bottleneck to achieve quantitative chain forecast. The project will analysis the causal chain using a unified method for the first time, try to describe the chain dusing a space weather index system which are self-consistency, quantitative and lay a foundation of theory and method for realizing the quantitative prediction along the chain. The project will use the "white spectrum method", that are proposed by the project group and has been successfully applied before, to universal construct a series of new index for space weather in major areas, then will analyze the physical meaning of the new index, study the chain propagation of space events using the new index, explore the basic physical process of the index, and try to forecast on the basis of the chain theory and the index method. The results of this project will not only significantly improve the practicability of the causal chain theory of space weather, but also provide new ideas and methods for the space weather research and applied directly in the operational space weather forecast.