大规模人类扰动对陆表能水通量影响的优化模拟及区域气候效应研究—以京津冀地区为例

我国东部大规模人类活动已严重扰动区域气候系统，亟需研究人类扰动对地表能量水分交换的影响机理及其气候效应。本项目选择京津冀为研究区，以人类大规模人类活动（城镇化和农业集约化、大气污染）干扰胁迫下的地表能量水分交换及其气候效应为主线，以“城市核心区-城乡结合部-农用地-自然林地”的不同城镇化强度作为扰动梯度，监测地表能量水分交换过程特征；监测典型农田生态系统不同灌溉、施肥强度梯度下地表能水交换特征；通过比较不同扰动强度下的地表能量水分交换的差异、探讨其机制；阐明不同人类扰动强度下地表能水交换的时空变化特征及其分异规律；发展、完善自主知识产权的耦合人类扰动-自然因子的陆面模型（DLM），并与区域气候模式WRF耦合，诊断、预估大规模人类扰动的气候效应。本项目分别从机理与表达、响应与归因、影响与后果、适应与调控四个层面开展研究，为适应与减缓气候变化及区域可持续发展提供科学依据。

Large-scale human activities in eastern China have seriously disturbed the regional climate system, so it is urgent to study the mechanism of human disturbance on energy and water exchange on the surface and its climatic effects. This project chooses Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as the research area, takes the energy and water exchange and its climatic effects under the interference of human activities (urbanization and agricultural intensification, air pollution) as the main line, and takes the different urbanization intensity of "urban core area-urban-rural junction-agricultural land-natural forest land" as the disturbance gradient, monitoring the characteristics of surface energy and water exchange process. The characteristics of surface energy and water exchange under different irrigation and fertilization intensity gradients in typical farmland ecosystems were studied; the differences of surface energy and water exchange under different disturbance intensity were compared and its mechanism was discussed; the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and differentiation law of surface energy and water exchange under different human disturbance intensity were clarified; and the land surface model (DLM)of coupling human disturbance and natural factors was developed and improved. DLM is coupled with WRF to diagnose and predict the climatic effects of large-scale human disturbances. This project studies from four aspects: mechanism and expression, response and attribution, impact and consequence, adaptation and regulation, providing scientific basis for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and regional sustainable development.