非平稳时间序列的频域因果关系检验理论及其应用研究

批准号:
71963015
项目类别:
地区科学基金项目
资助金额:
28.0 万元
负责人:
魏彦锋
依托单位:
学科分类:
计量经济与经济统计
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2019
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
魏彦锋
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中文摘要
现有非平稳时间序列频域因果关系检验涉及对向量误差修正模型相关系数的非线性约束,导致其应用性较差。为此,本项目将非平稳时间序列频域因果关系检验的零假设转换为对相关模型系数的线性约束,从而给出相对简单的检验步骤。具体研究有:(1)基于向量误差修正模型,定义频域因果关系测度,然后将频域因果关系检验的零假设转换为对模型系数的线性约束,从而给出检验统计量并阐明效力;(2)基于向量误差修正模型的残差序列,间接定义频域因果关系测度,然后将频域因果关系检验的零假设转换为对相关模型系数的线性约束,从而给出间接检验统计量并阐明效力;(3)当有第三个变量存在时,为了消除第三个变量的影响,定义偏相关频域因果关系测度,然后将偏相关频域因果关系检验的零假设转换为对相关模型系数的线性约束,从而给出检验统计量并阐明效力;(4)应用非平稳时间序列频域因果关系检验研究出口和产出及货币供应量、利率和产出在不同频率处的因果关系。
英文摘要
The existing frequency domain causality test for non-stationary time series involves non-linear restrictions on the coefficients of the vector error correction model, which restricts the application of the test. Under this background, the research program shows that the null hypothesis of the frequency domain causality test for non-stationary time series can be transformed into a set of linear restrictions on the coefficients of the vector error correction model, and thus presents a relatively simple testing procedure. The research includes: (1) based on the vector error correction model, we define the measure of the frequency domain causality. Then, we transform the null hypothesis of the frequency domain causality test into a set of linear restrictions on the coefficients of the model, and thus present the test and clarify the power of the test; (2) based on the errors of the vector error correction model, we indirectly define the measure of the frequency domain causality. Then, we transform the null hypothesis of the frequency domain causality test into a set of linear restrictions on the coefficients of the model, and thus present the test and clarify the power of the test; (3) if there is a third variable, to exclude the impact of the third variable on the frequency domain causality test, we define the partial frequency domain causality. Then, we transform the null hypothesis of the partial frequency domain causality test into a set of linear restrictions on the coefficients of the model, and thus present the test and clarify the power of the test; (4) we apply the frequency domain causality test for non-stationary time series to study the relationship between export and output as well as the relationship among the money supply, interest rate and output.
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DOI:DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1683142
发表时间:2020
期刊:Applied Economics Letters
影响因子:--
作者:Yanfeng Wei;Liguo Zhang;Qirui Li
通讯作者:Qirui Li
DOI:doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2023.05.268
发表时间:2023
期刊:Energy Reports
影响因子:5.2
作者:Yanfeng Wei;Bingwen Yu;Xiaoying Guo;Chang Zhang
通讯作者:Chang Zhang
DOI:doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.02.011
发表时间:2024
期刊:International Review of Economics & Finance
影响因子:4.5
作者:Yanfeng Wei;Feng Qiu;Henry An;Xindon Zhang;Changhong Li;Xiaoying Guo
通讯作者:Xiaoying Guo
DOI:doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2035312
发表时间:2022
期刊:Applied Economics
影响因子:--
作者:Yanfeng Wei;Xiaoying Guo
通讯作者:Xiaoying Guo
DOI:doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2020.108970
发表时间:2021
期刊:Statistics & Probability Letters
影响因子:--
作者:Yanfeng Wei;Liguo Zhang;Xiaoying Guo;Ting Yang
通讯作者:Ting Yang
国内基金
海外基金
