气-水-土耦合的华南红层地貌区山洪形成机理及其灾害风险定量评估

The understanding of the formation mechanism and risk assessment of flash flood disaster is critical for protecting the safety of people's lives and property. As “China Danxia Landform” is selected as a World Heritage site, research on the red beds landform has become more international and important. With the development of red beds landform tourism, the risk of its flash flood disaster arises and cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to develop innovative flash flood modeling technologies and new flood disaster risk assessment mehtods for the red beds landform. The red beds basin in Nanxiong city, Guangdong Province is taken as the study area. Firstly, based on field experiment, study on disaster chain formation mechanism of rainfall-flood-instability of rock and soil in red beds landform area of South China will be conducted, and then a physically-based rainstorm-flood model will be established to address the simulations of flash flood disaster in the red beds landform under changing environment. After that, the key risk factors of the flash flood disaster will be identified by using the association rules, and then a quantitative risk evaluation index system will be constructed. Finally, based on the weighted Bayesian network and numerical simulation technologies, a quantitative assessment model combining dynamic and static approaches is proposed. The model aims at solving the uncertainties of spatial-scale accuracy in flash flood disaster assessment on the red beds landform under changing environment. This project belongs to encouraged and guided field of research and the proposed methods are new and interdisciplinary enough to deepen development of red beds landform tourism and enhance the ability of flash flood disaster prevention and control, which has important theoretical significance and practical value.

山洪灾害形成机理及其风险评估研究，对保障人民生命财产安全至关重要。“中国丹霞”的申遗成功让中国红层地貌的研究走上国际化，随着红层旅游资源的开发，其面临的山洪灾害问题不容忽视，亟待发展面向红层地貌的山洪模拟新技术和山洪灾害风险评估新方法。本项目以广东省南雄红层盆地作为研究区域，首先通过野外试验，研究华南红层地貌区降雨—洪水—岩土失稳灾害链的形成机理，构建暴雨-山洪物理模型，解决变化环境下红层地貌区山洪灾害形成的模拟问题；然后利用关联规则辨识山洪灾害的关键驱动因子，构建定量化的风险评价指标体系；最后基于加权贝叶斯网络和动态数值模拟技术，建立动静结合的红层地貌区山洪灾害风险定量评估模型，解决变化环境下山洪灾害风险评估空间尺度的不确定性问题。本项目属于“鼓励和引导的研究领域”，具有国际前沿和多学科交叉的鲜明特色，对推动红层地貌的国际交流以及提升山洪灾害防治能力，都具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。

山洪灾害形成机理及其风险评估研究，对保障人民生命财产安全至关重要。随着红层旅游资源的开发，其面临的山洪灾害问题不容忽视，亟待发展面向红层地貌的山洪模拟新技术和山洪灾害风险评估新方法。本项目以广东省南雄红层盆地等区域作为研究对象，首先通过野外调研和采样，开展了华南典型红层地貌区水文气象特征以及土壤性质的空间变异特征及其影响因素研究，在综述国内外山洪灾害淹没过程模拟研究的基础上，构建了基于TPMF耦合的山洪演进过程模拟模型，提出了刚体有限元上限法的锥规划模型并开展了边坡稳定分析，利用关联规则挖掘山洪灾害中风险因子与风险等级之间的关联关系，构建了定量化的山洪灾害风险评价指标体系，最后建立了基于GIS-神经网络集成的山洪灾害风险区划及预测方法，以及基于云信息扩散的洪灾风险定量化评估模型及方法，解决了变化环境下山洪灾害风险评估的不确定性量化问题。该项目成果对推动红层地貌的国际交流以及提升山洪灾害防治能力，都具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。本项目至今已发表论文21篇，其中Journal of Hydrology、Journal of Contaminant Hydrology、Water Resources Research、Hydrology and Earth System Sciences、岩土力学、岩土工程学报等国内外高水平期刊论文7篇，授权发明专利2项和实用新型专利1项，申请发明专利1项，登记软件著作权1项，省部级科技奖励1项。项目组成员晋升副教授2名，讲师1名，同时培养博士后1人、博士研究生2人、硕士研究生6人。本项目研究直接完成博硕士论文6篇、博士后研究报告1篇。举办了国内学术会议1次，参加国际学术会议6人次、国内学术会议8人次。

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