不确定性环境下可再生能源和CCUS协同减排的机理、效应与政策机制研究

本研究立足可再生能源与化石能源清洁利用并举的战略思路，从“区域协同+技术协同”的角度，探讨可再生能源和CCUS协同减排的新路径。首先，拟从政策机制、市场环境、技术特点、成本收益等方面对可再生能源和CCUS商业化推广的不确定因素进行分析；然后，基于不确定因素，运用实物期权和博弈论探索可再生能源和CCUS协同减排的内在机理；最后，结合区域自然资源约束，深入挖掘不同区域可再生能源和CCUS协同减排的潜在效益，并通过情景分析和敏感性分析提出具有区域差异化的政策建议。总体而言，本研究拟从国家社会经济发展的宏观层面出发，基于推广综合技术集成解决方案的角度，提出可再生能源和CCUS技术创新的研发布局战略；从解决区域发展需求差异和资源分布不平衡的角度，给出优化可再生能源和CCUS技术商业化应用分配机制；从保障国家能源安全和促进能源结构调整的角度，提出建立市场化机制的可再生能源和CCUS技术协同发展政策。

This study sets foot in the strategy of paying equal attention to renewable energy and chemical clean energy, and discusses the new paths of collaborative carbon emission reduction with renewable energy and CCUS. First of all, the uncertain elements in the commercialized promotion of renewable energy and CCUS are firstly analyzed. Then, the Real Options Theory and Game theory are applied to explore the internal mechanism of emission reduction with renewable energy and CCUS collaboratively. Finally, by combining the natural resources limitation in the region, this study will focus on digging into the potential benefits of collaborative emission reduction with renewable energy and CCUS in different regions, and proposes policies and suggestions with regional differentiation through scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis. In general, this study intends to start with the macro-level of national social and economic development, propose the research and development layout and strategies of renewable energy and CCUS technological innovation based on the perspective of promoting comprehensive technology integrated solution; provide the commercialized application and distribution mechanism of renewable energy and CCUS technology optimization; and propose the establishment of the coordinated development strategies of renewable energy and CCUS technologies with marketization mechanism.